Posted at 24 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.0%, 0.1% previous
•Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.3%, 2.5%forecast,2.5% previous
•EU HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 48.4 ,48.5 forecast, 48.1 previous
•EU HCOB France Composite PMI (Jul) 49.6,49.3 forecast,49.2 previous
•EU HCOB France Services PMI (Jul) 49.7,49.7 forecast, 49.6 previous
• GfK German Consumer Climate (Aug) -21.5,-19.4 forecast,-20.3 previous
• EU HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.2,49.4 forecast, 49.0 previous
• EU HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jul): 50.1,50.0 forecast, 49.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.7 forecast, 49.5 previous
• 08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul): 50.8 forecast, 50.6 previous
• 08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jul): 50.6 forecast, 50.5 previous
• 08:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul): 51.8 forecast, 52.0 previous
• 08:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 47.9 forecast, 47.7 previous
• 08:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): 52.8 forecast, 52.8 previous
• 08:30 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jul): -27 forecast, -33 previous
•12:15 EU Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)2.00%forecast, 2.00% previous
•12:15 ECB Marginal Lending Facility 2.40% previous
•12:15 EU ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 2.15% forecast, 2.15% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD remained flat on Thursday as investors looked ahead to the European Central Bank’s rate decision.The European Central Bank was poised to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, marking a pause after seven consecutive cuts. The decision comes as policymakers await clarity on Europe’s trade relationship with the United States, which remains clouded by ongoing tensions.Over the past year, the ECB has aggressively eased policy slashing its key rate from 4% to 2% in response to a sharp decline in inflation, which had surged following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.However, policy direction has become increasingly complex amid unpredictable trade negotiations between Washington and Brussels. A major source of concern is U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU exports to the U.S. a scenario harsher than the most severe of three outcomes the ECB had outlined last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Thursday as optimism over trade deals between the United States and its key regional trade partners lifted demand for riskier. A series of positive developments on trade deals between the U.S. and Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines have calmed investor nerves over a protracted tariff war and boosted risk-on. Investors will watch out for the policy decision from the ECB later on Thursday as trade talks between Washington and Brussels continue. Trump has threatened to impose a 30% duty on EU goods but two diplomats said on Wednesday the EU and the U.S. were heading towards a deal that would result in a broad tariff of 15% applying to EU goods. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was down at 97.156 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed to an eight-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, driven by renewed optimism over trade agreements that lifted demand for higher-yielding currencies. The recently announced U.S.-Japan trade deal fueled expectations that additional agreements may soon follow, helping to avoid broad tariff measures. The U.S. has already reached trade deals with the Philippines and Indonesia, while an agreement with the European Union is also expected in the near term. According to European Commission officials, the U.S. and EU are nearing a pact that would introduce 15% tariffs on European imports, with certain exemptions in place. These positive trade developments have boosted global risk appetite, triggering a rally in risk assets and weakening demand for the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6635(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6725(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6582(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6548(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday as yen held to gains following more progress on trade deals between the United States and its largest trading partners.A flurry of trade pacts between the U.S. and countries such as Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines has bolstered market confidence. Markets were highly attentive to trade negotiations, amid reports from two EU diplomats that the U.S. and European Union are working toward a deal that may include a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods with some exclusions. In addition to trade developments, investors await the European Central Bank’s rate decision scheduled for later today. At GMT 06:06, the US dollar was down 0.28% to 146.10 against the Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.14(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.65(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.11(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks extended their gains on Thursday, buoyed by Wall Street’s optimism over trade agreements and strong corporate earnings.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.21% , Hang Seng was up 0.40 %, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.66 %%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell further on Thursday, with easing trade tensions reducing safe-haven demand despite support from a softer dollar.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,375.76 per ounce, as of 0644 GMT, after dropping 1.3% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% at $3,381.20.
Oil prices climbed about 1% on Thursday, supported by optimism over U.S. trade talks and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles.
Brent crude futures gained 64 cents, or 0.9%, to $69.15 a barrel by 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 68 cents, or 1%, to $65.93 per barrel.