Posted at 23 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German 10-Year Bund Auction 2.620%, 2.630% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.8% previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales (Jun) 4.00Mforecast, 4.03M previous
•14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jul) -15.0 forecast, -15.3 previous
•14:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.400M forecast, -3.859M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.157M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.395M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar firmed amid rising trade optimism. Investor sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump revived hopes for a trade deal with the European Union, following his announcement of a new agreement with Japan. The deal with Tokyo included a reduction in auto tariffs to 15% from 25% and shielded Japan from further duties, in exchange for a $550 billion package of U.S.-bound investment and loans. Optimism around a potential EU-U.S. trade agreement grew after Trump confirmed that EU officials would arrive in Washington for negotiations on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday after delivering eight consecutive cuts, as markets remain cautious over the risk of sharper-than-expected U.S. tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1760(Daily high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1819(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1717(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1626(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Wednesday as U.S.-Japan trade deal also boosted risk sentiment. In a significant trade breakthrough, President Trump struck a deal with Japan that slashes tariffs on auto imports and avoids fresh duties on other Japanese goods, in return for $550 billion in investment commitments to the U.S. economy. Traders are closely watching the UK’s flash PMI for July and June retail sales figures this week, as both datasets could influence expectations around future Bank of England policy moves. Markets are currently pricing in an 87.9% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England at its next meeting. Meanwhile, India and the UK will finalize a free trade deal on Thursday during Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Britain, marking a key milestone in bilateral economic ties. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed against greenback on Wednesday, buoyed by improved risk sentiment after news of a U.S.-Japan trade agreement. Late Tuesday, President Trump confirmed a deal with Japan that includes a reduced 15% tariff on U.S.-bound goods, following a similar agreement with the Philippines that sets a 19% tariff rate. Markets gained further relief as Trump announced that EU negotiators would arrive Wednesday for trade talks, offering some hope amid fading prospects for a broader U.S.-EU deal and concerns over potential European retaliation.On the domestic front, attention turns to Q2 CPI data due at month-end. A sticky core inflation print particularly 0.8% or above could prompt the RBA to delay any immediate rate cut. Consensus currently forecasts a 0.7% quarterly rise in core CPI, which would bring the annual rate down to 2.7% from 2.9%, keeping it within the central bank's 2–3% target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6581(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6615(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6545(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6494(50%fib).
USD/JPY: Dollar dipped against yen on Wednesday following Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with Japan ahead of the looming tariff deadline.Trump said the agreement would see Japan invest $550 billion into the United States, with a 15% tariff set on U.S. imports from Japan.Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that tariffs on Japanese cars exported to the U.S. will be cut to 15% from 25%, with no restrictions placed on import volumes. Japan will also increase purchases of agricultural products such as U.S. rice, a Trump administration official said. Ishiba said the share of U.S. rice imports may increase under its existing framework but that the agreement did "not sacrifice" Japanese agriculture.Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida called the deal "very big progress" and said it reduces uncertainty over the economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.50(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.25(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.91(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European equity markets climbed on Wednesday as hopes for more U.S. trade deals grew, following a U.S.-Japan agreement that cut auto tariffs and pushed Japanese stocks to their highest level in a year.
At GMT (13:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.25 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as a U.S.-Japan trade agreement announced by U.S. President Donald Trump lifted investor risk appetite, while a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields added further pressure.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,428.69 per ounce as of 1147 GMT, after hitting its highest point since June 16 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures also slipped 0.1% to $3,441.90
Oil prices declined for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, as investors weighed U.S. trade developments, including a tariff deal with Japan, ahead of upcoming U.S. inventory data.
Brent crude futures were down 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $68.24 a barrel as of 1246 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 33 cents, or 0.5%, at $64.98 per barrel