Posted at 23 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.0%, 0.1% previous
•Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.3%, 2.5%forecast,2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•German 10-Year Bund Auction 2.630% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held steady on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump revived hopes for a trade deal with the European Union, following the announcement of an agreement with Japan. Trump’s deal with Japan included a reduction in auto tariffs to 15% from 25% and shielded Tokyo from additional levies, in exchange for a $550 billion package of U.S.-bound investment and loans. Optimism around a potential EU-U.S. trade agreement rose after Trump said EU officials would arrive for negotiations on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, following eight consecutive cuts, as markets remain wary of the risk of steeper-than-expected U.S. tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, fueling optimism for further agreements ahead of an approaching tariff deadline. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, has been under pressure since Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2 dubbed "Liberation Day" with most duties subsequently delayed or suspended as the administration pursued bilateral deals. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, stood at 97.48 after three straight days of losses, hovering near its lowest level since July 10. The index has fallen 6.6% since the early April announcement. On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is prioritizing the quality of trade agreements over their timing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3439(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Wednesday as news of U.S.-Japan trade deal boosted risk sentiment.Late Tuesday, President Trump confirmed a trade agreement with Japan featuring a reduced 15% tariff on goods entering the U.S., shortly after finalizing a similar deal with the Philippines that sets a 19% tariff rate.Markets found some relief after Trump said EU negotiators would arrive Wednesday for trade discussions, offering a glimmer of hope amid dwindling expectations of a U.S. deal and rising fears of European countermeasures. Domestically, the next major test will be the Q2 CPI data due at month-end, where a sticky core inflation reading particularly 0.8% or higher could prompt the RBA to delay any near-term rate cut. Market consensus points to a 0.7% rise in core CPI for Q2, which would see the annual pace ease to 2.7%, down from 2.9%, and aligning more closely with the RBA’s 2–3% inflation target band. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6581(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6615(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6545(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6494(50%fib).
USD/JPY: Dollar firmed against yen on Wednesday following Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with Japan ahead of the looming tariff deadline.Trump said the agreement would see Japan invest $550 billion into the United States, with a 15% tariff set on U.S. imports from Japan.Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that tariffs on Japanese cars exported to the U.S. will be cut to 15% from 25%, with no restrictions placed on import volumes. Japan will also increase purchases of agricultural products such as U.S. rice, a Trump administration official said. Ishiba said the share of U.S. rice imports may increase under its existing framework but that the agreement did "not sacrifice" Japanese agriculture.Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida called the deal "very big progress" and said it reduces uncertainty over the economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.50(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.25(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.91(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday after Tokyo reached a trade deal with Washington, ending a months-long stalemate.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.44% , Hang Seng was up 1.144 %, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 3.59%%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday after falling for three consecutive sessions as a U.S. tariff deal, opens new tab with Japan improved global trade sentiment.
Brent crude futures were down 2 cents, or 0.03%, at $68.57 a barrel as of 0654 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were also down 2 cents, at $65.29 per barrel.
Gold slipped on Wednesday amid improved risk sentiment after Trump revealed a trade agreement with Japan, though weakness in the dollar and a decline in Treasury yields helped cushion bullion’s decline.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,425.91 per ounce, as of 0705 GMT, after hitting its highest point since June 16 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% lower to $3,439.