Posted at 18 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Jun) -1.3% ,-1.3% forecast, -1.2% previous
• EU Current Account (May) 32.3B, 34.8B forecast, 18.6B previous
• EU Current Account n.s.a. (May) 1.0B, 18.1B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Jun): -2.0% previous
• 12:30US Building Permits (Jun): 1.390M forecast, 1.394M previous
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Jun): -9.8% previous
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (Jun): 1.290M forecast, 1.256M previous
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul): 5.0% previous
•14:00US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul): 4.0% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul): 55.0 forecast, 58.1 previous
•14:00US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul): 61.4 forecast, 60.7 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Jul): 63.9 forecast, 64.8 previous
• 14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• 17:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 424 previous
• 17:00 US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 537 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded from Thursday’s three-week low against the dollar, even as the greenback remained on track for a second consecutive weekly gain. Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data reinforced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance on interest rates.Jobless claims data showed a decline in the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating steady job growth in July. However, some laid-off workers continue to face extended unemployment due to slower hiring momentum.Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, although part of the increase likely stemmed from higher prices on tariff-affected goods.The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.1% to 98.365 on Friday, but was still poised for its second straight weekly gain, having recovered from a 3-1/2 year low touched just over two weeks ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Friday as traders reassessed the Bank of England's rate outlook amid mixed economic data. The session was quiet on the domestic front following a packed week, which included hotter-than-expected inflation figures on Wednesday and signs of slowing wage growth on Thursday. Markets are now nearly fully pricing in an August rate cut, with another likely by year-end. However, while fewer BoE cuts would normally support the pound, gains remain limited due to concerns over the impact of higher borrowing costs on the UK’s public finances. Sterling was last up 0.27% on the day against the dollar at $1.3454, though set for a weekly fall of 0.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3448(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Friday, supported by rising iron ore prices and modest softness in the U.S. dollar. Dalian iron ore futures advanced, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain amid improved demand expectations and growing anticipation of further policy easing from China.Meanwhile, subdued Australian employment data earlier this week has shifted market expectations decisively, with traders now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in August, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%.The next key focus will be the Q2 CPI data due at the end of the month. A sticky core inflation print—particularly 0.8% or higher—could delay the RBA's easing plans. Consensus forecasts suggest a 0.7% rise in core CPI for the quarter, which would bring the annual pace down to 2.7% from 2.9%, moving closer to the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6565(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6582(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was broadly flat on Friday as investors were cautious ahead of crunch legislative election in Japan on Sunday. As Japan prepares for Sunday’s vote, the Upper House election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent memory, raising the risk of political turbulence just as markets grapple with shifting rate expectations. Recent polling indicates that the LDP–Komeito coalition could fall short of retaining its Upper House majority in the July 20 election. On the data front, Japan’s core inflation eased in June but remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, underscoring the persistent cost-of-living pressures that have posed a challenge for Prime Minister Ishiba.Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 3.3% year-on-year in June, in line with the median market forecast, data showed on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.50(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.25(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.91(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Friday, led by gains in Vestas and Saab, as investors turned their attention to corporate earnings for insights into how U.S. tariff policies are affecting businesses.
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up trading up at 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold saw limited gains on Friday as a weakening dollar and geopolitical tension lent support, while solid U.S. data and fading fears over the Federal Reserve’s independence capped the rally.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,350.87 per ounce, as of 1013 GMT, after falling 1.1% in the previous session. The bullion has receded 0.1% so far this week.U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,356.70.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday but remained on track for a modest weekly loss, as investors assessed the impact of new European Union sanctions against Russia.
Brent crude futures climbed 50 cents, or 0.72%, to $70.02 a barrel as of 0912 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 61 cents, or 0.9%, to $68.15 a barrel.