Posted at 18 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%, 0.3% previous
•Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 3.7% previous
•Japan National CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%,0.3% previous
•Japan National CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.3%,3.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Spanish Trade Balance -3.88B previous
• 08:00 EU Current Account (May) 34.8B forecast, 19.8B previous
• 08:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (May) 19.3B previous
•09:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (May) 1.65% previous
•10:00 Portuguese Current Account (May) 0.165B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•08:15 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
•08:15 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as investors closely monitored the evolving trade dynamics between the European Union and the United States, particularly amid renewed concerns over potential tariff escalations. Market participants were focused on signals from both sides regarding proposed duties on key exports, including autos and agricultural goods, which could have significant implications for transatlantic trade flows and broader economic sentiment. With global supply chains still vulnerable and inflation dynamics shifting, any move toward increased protectionism is seen as a potential drag on eurozone growth making developments in EU–U.S. trade policy a key driver for the euro and broader risk appetite. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Friday as the U.S. dollar softened in response to dovish comments from Federal Reserve official . Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated late Thursday that he supports a rate cut at the July meeting, citing increasing economic risks. He warned that delaying action could require more aggressive easing later. Financial markets continue to assign a low probability to a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming July 29–30 meeting, with attention shifting toward the September 16–17 meeting as a more likely window for policy easing to resume. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has intensified his pressure campaign on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates immediately, even suggesting the possibility of replacing Powell before his term ends in May 2026. Powell, however, has consistently maintained his intention to serve out his full term . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3448(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Friday as rising iron ore prices and modest U.S. dollar softness provided support Australian dollar.Dalian iron ore futures advanced on Friday, set for a fourth weekly gain amid improved demand expectations and growing anticipation of additional policy easing from China.The subdued Australian jobs data released this week has shifted market pricing decisively, with a full 25 basis point RBA rate cut to 3.60% now expected at the August policy meeting.The next major test comes with the Q2 CPI data at month-end, where a sticky core inflation reading particularly 0.8% or higher could delay any immediate rate cut by the RBA. Market consensus points to a 0.7% rise in core CPI for Q2, which would see the annual pace ease to 2.7%, down from 2.9%, and aligning more closely with the RBA’s 2–3% inflation target band. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6565(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6582(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday as Japanese yen continue to weaken ahead of Japan upper house election. As Japan prepares for Sunday’s vote, the Upper House election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent memory, raising the risk of political turbulence just as markets grapple with shifting rate expectations. Recent polling indicates that the LDP–Komeito coalition could fall short of retaining its Upper House majority in the July 20 election. On the data front, Japan’s core inflation eased in June but remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, underscoring the persistent cost-of-living pressures that have posed a challenge for Prime Minister Ishiba.Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 3.3% year-on-year in June, in line with the median market forecast, data showed on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.50(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.25(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.91(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks extended gains on Friday as investors looked beyond U.S. tariff risks to focus on upbeat corporate earnings and dovish central bank tilts.
South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.13% , Hang Seng was up 1.28 %,China A 50 was up 0. 68%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Friday, supported by fresh EU sanctions on Russia, renewed supply risks from drone attacks in northern Iraq, and ongoing tightness in global markets.
Brent crude futures climbed 62 cents, or 0.89%, to $70.14 a barrel as of 0652 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 64 cents, or 0.95%, to $68.18 a barrel.
Gold prices traded flat on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and robust economic data, while platinum surged to its highest level since August 2014
Spot gold held its ground at $3,339.20 per ounce, as of 0640 GMT. U.S. gold futures were flat at $3,344.60. Bullion has declined 0.5% so far this week.