Posted at 17 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (May): 5.0%, 4.9% forecast, 5.3% previous
· UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May): 5.0%, 5.0% forecast, 5.4% previous
· UK Claimant Count Change (Jun): 25.9K, 17.9K forecast, 15.3K previous
· UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (May): 134K, 46K forecast, 89K previous
· UK Unemployment Rate (May): 4.7%, 4.6% forecast, 4.6% previous
· Switzerland Trade Balance (Jun): 5.790B, 4.220B forecast, 4.008B previous
· Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
· Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 1.9% previous
· Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
· Eurozone CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, no forecast, -0.1% previous
· Eurozone CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jun): 1.9%, no forecast, 1.8% previous
· Eurozone CPI, n.s.a (Jun): 129.10, 129.07 forecast, 128.71 previous
· Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jun): 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
· Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,970K forecast, 1,965K previous
12:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Jun): 1.7% previous
12:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Jun): 0.2% previous
12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 233K forecast, 227K previous
12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 235.5K previous
12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul): -1.2 forecast, -4.0 previous
12:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jul): 18.3 previous
12:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jul): 14.5 previous
12:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Jul): -9.8 previous
12:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Jul): 2.3 previous
12:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jul): 41.4 previous
12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): 0.1% forecast, -0.9% previous
12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): 3.29% previous
12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jun): -0.1% previous
12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (May): -7.32B forecast, -9.36B previous
12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (May): 4.10B previous
14:00 US Business Inventories (May): 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul.): 32 previous
14:00 US Retail Inventories ex Auto (May): 0.2% previous
14:30 US Natural Gas Storage: 44B forecast, 53B previous
15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.235% previous
15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.275% previous
17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as concerns U.S. President Donald Trump was preparing to fire the Federal Reserve chair kept investors cautious. Trump denied reports he was planning to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but he kept the door open to the possibility and renewed his criticism of the central bank chief for not lowering interest rates. Investors worry that removing Powell before his term ends in May 2026 would undermine credibility in the U.S. financial system .The euro was last down 0.14% at $1.1582. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1562(July 16th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1507(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as markets digested disappointing labor market figures from the UK.Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that payrolled employment dropped by 41,000 in June compared to May, signaling cracks in the UK job market.The ILO jobless rate for May rose to 4.7%, higher than the 4.6% forecast. Meanwhile, annual wage growth excluding bonuses came in at 5.0%, slightly above the 4.9% expected.The soft labor market data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% at its next policy meeting on August 7. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3448(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a three-week low on Thursday after employment data missed expectations and the jobless rate surged to a three-year high. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed net employment rose by just 2,000 in June, well below the forecast of a 20,000 increase, and followed a revised 1,100 decline in May. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% from 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, surprising markets after a prolonged period of stable readings. The soft labor market figures added to signs of an economic slowdown and reinforced expectations for monetary easing. Following the data, markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6698(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6544(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6488(July 7th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar advanced on Thursday as yen slid as concerns mounted over a pivotal election in Japan and a still elusive trade deal with the U.S. to avoid a punishing rise in tariffs. Polls showed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was in danger of losing its majority in the upper house. Japan’s top trade negotiator held a phone call with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on tariffs, as data showed the Asian nation's exports were starting to feel the impact of tariffs with shipments down for a second straight month.Japan failed to clinch a deal with the U.S. before the July 9 expiration of the temporary pause on the country-specific tariffs. Investors remain focused on tariffs ahead of an August 1 deadline when many trading partners face higher trade levies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.50(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.25(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.91(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European markets gained on Thursday, breaking a four-session decline, buoyed by upbeat results from ABB and renewed optimism surrounding a U.S. trade agreement.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Thursday as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the metal, following reassurance from President Trump that he had no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powel
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,324.81 per ounce, as of 0958 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to $3,330.40.
Oil prices rose on Thursday, even as global trade tensions appeared to cool, with analysts pointing to low inventories and renewed Middle East risks as factors supporting the market.
Brent crude futures were up 31 cents, or around 0.5%, to $68.83 a barrel at 1203 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 61 cents, or 0.9%, at $66.99.