Posted at 16 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jun) 60.70%, 59.70% previous
• UK Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.4% , 0.2%forecast,0.2% previous
• UK Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): 3.7%, 3.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Jun): 4.3%, 4.1% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Jun): 3.6%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Jun): 138.90, 138.40 previous
•UK CPIH (YoY): 4.1%, 4.0% previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Jun): 4.4%, 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•08:00 Italian CPI (YoY) (Jun): 1.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•08:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jun): 1.4% previous
•08:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Jun): 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•08:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Jun): 1.7% forecast, 1.7% previous
•08:30 UK House Price Index (YoY): 3.2% forecast, 3.5% previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance (May): 2.870B forecast, 2.482B previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (May): 0.16B previous
•09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance (May): 13.9B forecast, 9.9B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday Investors awaited clarity on U.S.-EU trade talks as the EU prepared retaliatory measures in case negotiations with Washington broke down . Tensions escalated on Monday as the European Union accused the United States of obstructing efforts to secure a trade agreement, warning of retaliatory measures should talks fail to prevent the steep tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump, set to take effect on August 1.President Trump, however, struck a more conciliatory tone, stating he was open to continued dialogue with the EU and other trade partners ahead of the planned 30% tariffs. He also confirmed that EU officials would be visiting Washington for further negotiations. The European Union has thus far refrained from imposing retaliatory measures, aiming to prevent a tit-for-tat escalation while diplomatic efforts toward a better trade outcome remain possible . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday as investors digested UK CPI data. Britain’s annual consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, its highest level in over a year,according to official data released on Wednesday. The surprise uptick may complicate the Bank of England’s decision on whether to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in August.The June CPI reading, reported by the Office for National Statistics, marked the highest annual rate since January 2024. It exceeded economist expectations from a Reuters poll, which had forecast inflation to remain steady at May’s 3.4% rate.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that interest rates are still likely to follow a gradual downward path, citing a weakening labour market and subdued economic growth as factors that should dampen wage pressures. The BoE has cut interest rates by four quarter-point steps since August and economists forecast two more quarter-point rate cuts this year, including a likely move in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3448(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Wednesday as traders awaited key labor market data that may influence RBA monetary policy expectations. Australia will release its June jobs data on Thursday, with median forecasts pointing to a 20,000 increase in employment following a rare decline in May.The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, where it has hovered for much of the past year.The jobless rate has remained tightly range-bound between 3.9% and 4.2% since late 2023, showing unexpected resilience despite broader economic headwinds.The Reserve Bank of Australia is treading carefully, favoring a data-dependent policy stance amid signs of stabilizing inflation and persistent labor market strength. At GMT 07:48, Australian dollar was trading up 0.14% at 0.6522 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6698(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6544(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6488(July 7th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hit three-and-a-half-month high on Wednesday as dollar strengthened following an inflation report that reduced expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.The dollar climbed against major currencies, nearing its highest level since June 20, as inflation data pointed to tariff-driven price pressures .U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, matching forecasts and marking the biggest increase since January, data showed Tuesday.U.S. CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year in June, up from 2.4% in May, slightly above economists’ forecast of 2.6% and a 0.3% monthly gain.Traders have trimmed Fed easing expectations to roughly 43 basis points by year-end, from just above 50 bps at the week's start. Focus now turns to U.S. producer price data later in the day for further clues on whether price pressures are indeed beginning to pick up. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.50(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.25(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.91(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian markets came under pressure Wednesday, while the dollar rose to a multi-month high versus the yen after U.S. inflation data signaled tariff impacts, reducing chances of Fed easing.
South Korea’s KOSPI down up 0.90% , Hang Seng was down 0.90 %,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0. 07%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Wednesday, supported by a pullback in the U.S. dollar and bond yields, while investors digested data showing an increase in U.S. consumer prices last month and awaited further clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy.
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, supported by expectations of strong summer demand in the U.S. and China, though broader economic concerns limited gains.
Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $69.07 a barrel by 0646 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 47 cents, or 0.9%, to $66.99.