Posted at 15 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•China House Prices (YoY) (Jun) -3.2%, -3.5% previous
•China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jun) 2.8%,3.6%forecast, 3.7% previous
•China GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 1.1%,0.9% forecast, 1.2% previous
•China GDP (YoY) (Q2) 5.2%,5.4% previous
•China Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q2) 5.3%, 5.1% forecast, 5.4% previous
•China Production (YoY) (Jun) 6.8%,5.6% forecast, 5.8% previous
•China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Jun) 6.4%, 6.3% previous
•China Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) 4.8%, 5.2% forecast, 6.4% previous
•China Unemployment Rate (Jun) 5.0%, 5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Jul) -65.5 forecast,-72.0 previous
• 09:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 50.8 forecast,47.5 previous
•09:00 EU Industrial Production (MoM) (May) 1.1% forecast, -2.4% previous
•09:00 EU Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 2.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
•09:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 37.8 forecast, 35.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higheragainst the dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data due later in the day that could give clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. U.S. consumer prices likely picked up in June, potentially marking the start of a long-anticipated, tariff-induced increase in inflation that has left the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming its interest rate cuts.The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Tuesday is expected to show a rebound in gasoline prices and higher costs for some tariff-sensitive goods last month. Inflation readings from February through May were on the soft side, leading to demands by President Donald Trump for the U.S. central bank to lower borrowing costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as investors remained cautious over tariff developments and awaited US CPI data. Investors are closely watching the upcoming release of U.S. consumer price data for June, scheduled for Tuesday, as they look for any signs that recent tariff actions may be contributing to upward pressure on inflation. The inflation reading will also be a key input for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path heading into the second half of the year. The BoE is expected to cut interest rates next month for the fifth time since last August, with traders betting on an 89% chance of a 25 bps reduction.The country's inflation figures and employment data later this week are likely to offer fresh cues on the central bank's rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3448(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Tuesday as investors digested mixed Chinese GDP data and looked ahead to the upcoming U.S. inflation report.Data on Tuesday showed China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.2% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter.Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose 4.8% in June, slowing from 6.4% growth in May. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 5.4%.Investors are now shifting their focus to U.S. consumer price data for June, set to be released at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday. Market forecasts point to a rise in annual headline inflation to 2.7%, compared to 2.4% in May. Core inflation is also expected to accelerate, reaching 3.0% from the previous 2.8%.Meanwhile,Australia is scheduled to release its jobs data on Thursday, with markets expecting an increase of 20,000 in employment and the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6698(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6544(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6488(July 7th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded flat against yen on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of Japan's upcoming election and the release of U.S. consumer price data. Investors are closely watching the upcoming release of U.S. consumer price data for June, scheduled for Tuesday, as they look for any signs that recent tariff actions may be contributing to upward pressure on inflation. The inflation reading will also be a key input for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path heading into the second half of the year. investors are also awaiting the results of Sunday’s nationwide upper house election, with analysts warning that the ruling pro-business Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may struggle to secure a majority. If the party falls short, it could be forced to form new coalitions to maintain control, adding political uncertainty to the market outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.43(Higher BB)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.67(61.8%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.58(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.26(Jul 7th low).
Equities Recap
Asian markets advanced on Tuesday as investors focused on trade negotiations, while attention turned to upcoming U.S. inflation figures and quarterly results from major banks.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.41% , Hang Seng was up 0.92 %,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0. 53%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as heightened global trade tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets, while investors awaited U.S. inflation data due later in the day for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Spot gold gained 0.5% to $3,359.01 per ounce, as of 0635 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,368.20.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's 50-day ultimatum for Russia to end the war in Ukraine eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions and sanctions.
Brent crude futures slipped 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $69.09 a barrel by 06:10 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 16 cents, also 0.2%, to $66.82