Posted at 14 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•China Exports (Jun) 7.20M, 6.30M previous
•China Imports (Jun) 2.30M, -2.10M previous
•China Trade Balance (Jun) 825.96B, 785.00B forecast, 743.56B previous
•China Exports (YoY) (Jun) 5.8%, 5.0% forecast, 4.8% previous
•China Imports (YoY) (Jun) 1.1%, 1.3% forecast, -3.4% previous
•China Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) 114.77B, 113.20B forecast, 103.22B previous
•Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) (May) 2.0%, 1.3% previous
•Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (May) -0.1%, 0.5% forecast, -1.1% previous
•Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (May) -1.10, -10.80 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•06:00 Sweden CPI (YoY) (Jun): 0.8% forecast, 0.2% previous
•06:00 Sweden CPIF (YoY) (Jun): 2.9% forecast,2.3% previous
•06:00 Sweden CPIF (MoM) (Jun): 0.5% forecast, 0.1% previous
•06:30 Switzerland PPI (YoY) (Jun): -0.7% previous
•06:30 Switzerland PPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•10:00 China M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Jun): 8.2% forecast, 7.9% previous
•10:00 China New Loans (Jun): ¥1,960.0B forecast, ¥620.0B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 EU Eurogroup Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from two of the largest U.S. trading partners beginning August 1.Trump on Saturday announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum that were posted on his Truth Social media site. EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc will pursue talks while readying retaliatory steps. French President Macron called for a firm defense of EU interests, possibly using anti-coercion tools. Germany’s Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said the EU must act decisively if talks fail. The latest salvo from Trump and the dilemma over how to respond could test the unity of EU member states, with France adopting a tougher stance than Germany the bloc’s export-reliant industrial heavyweight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1877(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against dollar on Monday as the latest round of threats in the U.S. tariff wars kept investors on edge. Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in long negotiations. The European Union said it would extend a suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, though Germany's finance minister called for firm action if the levies went ahead. June U.S. CPI data is due Tuesday and may begin to reflect early tariff-related price pressures, though effects may be limited by pre-levy inventory and margin absorption. Producer and import price data this week could highlight supply chain impacts, while retail sales will shed light on consumer strength .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3680(July 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3448(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Monday as renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump reignited fears of a potential global trade war. Trade tensions escalated Saturday as Trump threatened 30% tariffs on Mexican and EU imports from August 1, citing the breakdown of negotiations on a broader deal.Looking ahead, Australia is set to release its employment report on Thursday, with expectations pointing to a gain of 20,000 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%.The Australian labour market has shown unexpected resilience in recent months, providing the Reserve Bank of Australia with justification to maintain a cautious stance and delay any immediate shift toward more accommodative monetary policy.Markets are increasingly convinced that monetary easing is on the horizon. Any downside surprise in data would add weight to expectations for an August rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6698(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6544(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6488(July 7th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was little changed against yen on Monday as markets remained on edge to fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned of a 30% duty on imports from the European Union and Mexico. Apart from the tariff headlines, Donald Trump on Sunday said it would be a "great thing" if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stepped down, once again pressuring the Fed and calling for interest rate cuts, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence. Markets now turn to U.S. inflation data for June, due Tuesday, which could offer fresh clues on the Fed’s policy direction. Economists expect consumer prices to have edged higher last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.43(Higher BB)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.67(61.8%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.58(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.26(Jul 7th low).
Equities Recap
Asian shares gained on Monday as the latest salvo of threats in the U.S. tariff wars kept investors on edge.
At GMT (05:49 ) South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.70% , Hang Seng was up 0.73 %,China A50 was up 0. 30%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged higher on Monday, building on Friday’s 2% gain, as investors weighed potential U.S. sanctions on Russia against rising Saudi output and ongoing tariff-related uncertainty.
Brent crude futures rose 15 cents to $70.51 a barrel by 04:00 GMT, extending Friday’s 2.51% gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 14 cents to $68.59, after a 2.82% rise in the prior session.
Gold prices climbed to a three-week high on Monday, buoyed by renewed safe-haven demand after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from both the European Union and Mexico.
Spot gold was steady at $3,354.83 per ounce, as of 0410 GMT, after hitting its highest point since June 23 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $3,371.