Posted at 11 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• U.K. Construction Output (MoM) (May): -0.6%, 0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
• U.K. GDP (MoM) (May): -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
• U.K. GDP (YoY) (May): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 1.1% previous
• U.K. Index of Services (May): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
• U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) (May): -0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) (May): -0.9%, -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
• U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May): -1.0%, -0.1% forecast, -0.7% previous
• U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (May): 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
• U.K. Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (May): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
• U.K. Trade Balance (May): -21.69B, -21.10B forecast, -22.42B previous
• U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU (May): -9.32B, -9.96B previous
• German WPI (YoY) (Jun): 0.9%, 0.4% previous
• German WPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.0%,0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Jun) 0.9%,0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (May) -1.5% forecast,-6.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Employment Change (Jun): 0.9K forecast, 8.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Full-Time Employment Change (Jun): 57.7K previous
•12:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Jun): -48.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Participation Rate (Jun): 65.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun): 7.1% forecast, 7.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Friday as the U.S. president broadened his trade war on countries including Canada, while investors awaited word on tariffs for the European Union.Donald Trump on Thursday said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of trade talks between Washington and the bloc. He also announced a 35% tariff rate on all imports from Canada from August 1 and floated a blanket 15% or 20% tariff rate on other countries, up from the current 10% baseline rate. Trump has broadened his trade war in recent days, setting new tariffs on a number of countries along with a 50% tariff on copper. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1718(14SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1835(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 12th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped lower against dollar on Friday after data showed the UK economy contracted for a second consecutive month, strengthening expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August. According to the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% decline in April. The downturn was largely driven by weakness in industrial production and the construction sector.The disappointing figures add pressure on Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, as economists suggest she may be forced to raise taxes again in the upcoming Autumn budget to help stabilize public finances. Markets now assign a 78.3% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the BoE’s August meeting, up from 64% just two weeks ago .Meanwhile, Markets worldwide were rattled as Trump pledged a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and signaled 15–20% levies on other trade partners. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3657(14SMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3544(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3286(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar retreated from an eight-month high on Friday as investor sentiment turned increasingly cautious following a fresh escalation in global trade tensions led by U.S. President Donald Trump. Late Thursday, Trump announced a 35% tariff on all Canadian imports, effective August 1, and signaled plans to impose broad-based tariffs of 15% to 20% on several other major trading partners. Earlier in the week, the president postponed a July 9 tariff deadline to August 1, granting more time for negotiations. However, he simultaneously broadened the trade war, introducing new duties on additional countries. The Australian dollar had initially found support earlier in the week after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets on Tuesday by keeping its cash rate steady at 3.85%, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6698(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6544(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6488(July 7th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Friday as dollar firmed after U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats. On Thursday, Trump said U.S. would impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada and planned to impose blanket duties of 15% or 20% on most other trade partners. This follows Wednesday's announcement of a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a similar levy on goods from Brazil, along with tariff notifications sent earlier to other trading partners. Trump also said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of trade talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.43(Higher BB)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.67(61.8%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.58(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.26(Jul 7th low).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped Friday after Trump escalated tariff threats, with markets bracing for possible levies on the EU.
At GMT (12:28) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.03 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil rose slightly Friday as investors balanced near-term supply tightness with IEA’s warning of a possible surplus, while U.S. tariffs and Russia sanctions remained in focus.
Brent crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.58%, at $69.04 a barrel as of 1027 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 45 cents, or 0.68%, to $67.02 a barrel.
Gold prices rose for a third consecutive session on Friday, as escalating trade tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,344.02 per ounce as of 1108 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.9% to $3,355.