Posted at 11 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• U.K. Construction Output (MoM) (May): -0.6%, 0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
• U.K. GDP (MoM) (May): -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
• U.K. GDP (YoY) (May): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 1.1% previous
• U.K. Index of Services (May): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
• U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) (May): -0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) (May): -0.9%, -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
• U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May): -1.0%, -0.1% forecast, -0.7% previous
• U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (May): 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
• U.K. Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (May): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
• U.K. Trade Balance (May): -21.69B, -21.10B forecast, -22.42B previous
• U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU (May): -9.32B, -9.96B previous
• German WPI (YoY) (Jun): 0.9%, 0.4% previous
• German WPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 Italian 15-Year BTP Auction 4.06% previous
•09:00 Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.24% previous
•09:00 Italian 7-Year BTP Auction 3.02% previous
•12:00 UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Jun) 0.4% previous
•12:00 German Current Account Balance n.s.a (May) 23.5B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Friday as the U.S. president broadened his trade war on countries including Canada, while investors awaited word on tariffs for the European Union.Donald Trump on Thursday said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of trade talks between Washington and the bloc. He also announced a 35% tariff rate on all imports from Canada from August 1 and floated a blanket 15% or 20% tariff rate on other countries, up from the current 10% baseline rate. Trump has broadened his trade war in recent days, setting new tariffs on a number of countries along with a 50% tariff on copper. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1718(14SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1835(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(June 12th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar on Friday as pound was weighed by weaker UK GDP data . Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May, adding to worries at home for finance minister Rachel Reeves in an increasingly uncertain global environment, official data showed on Friday. Gross domestic product declined by 0.1% after a 0.3% drop in April, the Office for National Statistics said. The reading poses downside risks to expectations that the economy grew in the second quarter of 2025, after a surge early in the year. It boosted expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government has struggled to meaningfully improve growth in its first year in office. Economists say it looks increasingly likely that Reeves will need to raise taxes again in her next budget - something she had hoped to avoid. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3657(14SMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3544(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3286(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar retreated from an eight-month high on Friday as investor sentiment turned increasingly cautious following a fresh escalation in global trade tensions led by U.S. President Donald Trump. Late Thursday, Trump announced a 35% tariff on all Canadian imports, effective August 1, and signaled plans to impose broad-based tariffs of 15% to 20% on several other major trading partners. Earlier in the week, the president postponed a July 9 tariff deadline to August 1, granting more time for negotiations. However, he simultaneously broadened the trade war, introducing new duties on additional countries. The Australian dollar had initially found support earlier in the week after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets on Tuesday by keeping its cash rate steady at 3.85%, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6698(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6544(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6488(July 7th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday as dollar advanced after U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats. On Thursday, Trump said U.S. would impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada and planned to impose blanket duties of 15% or 20% on most other trade partners. This follows Wednesday's announcement of a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a similar levy on goods from Brazil, along with tariff notifications sent earlier to other trading partners. Trump also said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of trade talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.43(Higher BB)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.67(61.8%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.58(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.26(Jul 7th low).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up his tariff war against Canada, leaving Europe squarely in the firing line.
South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.23% , Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.30% , China A50 was up by 0.61%
Commodities Recap
Gold extended its gains for a third consecutive session on Friday, supported by safe-haven demand after President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada and signaled broader trade actions against other partners.
Spot gold was up 0.5% to $3,339.99 per ounce, as of 0755 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.8% to $3,351.
Oil rose Friday on fears of new U.S. sanctions on Russia, though gains were capped by OPEC+ output and trade tensions.
Brent crude futures were up 44 cents, or 0.64%, at $69.08 a barrel as of 0649 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 52 cents, or 0.78%, to $67.09 a barrel.