Posted at 10 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.0% , 2.0% forecast, 2.1% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.0% ,0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (Jun): 2.0% , 2.0% forecast, 2.1% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (Jun): 0.1% , 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (May) -0.7%, -0.2%forecast, 0.9% previous
• Italian Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (May) -0.9% 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (May) -2.0%, -4.2% previous
•Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 1.961%,1.983% previous
• Irish HICP (MoM) (Jun) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast,0.0% previous
• Irish HICP (YoY) (Jun) 1.6%, 1.6% forecast,1.4% previous
•Portuguese CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.3% previous
•Portuguese CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%, 1% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,980K forecast, 1,964K previous
•12:30 Initial Jobless Claims: 236K actual, 233K previous
•12:30 Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 241.50K previous
•12:30 Natural Gas Storage: 56B forecast, 55B previous
•15:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.240% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.300% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 BoE Breeden Speaks
•17:15 US Fed Waller Speaks
•18:30 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Thursday as investors assessed potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on global economic growth. On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, with a punitive 50% tariff on exports to the U.S., after a public spat with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.He has also announced plans for tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and his administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen letters issued earlier in the week including for powerhouse U.S. suppliers South Korea and Japan. The EU's trade chief Maros Sefcovic has said he hoped that EU negotiators could finalise their work soon. The euro eased 0.1% to $1.1710. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1828(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1879(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1712(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1623(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound held steady against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as markets largely brushed off renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump. On Wednesday, Trump announced a new 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1, aimed at boosting domestic production in sectors deemed vital to national defense, electronics, and automotive manufacturing. The measure adds to a series of targeted tariffs on industries like steel and aluminum moves that economists warn could increase costs for U.S. consumers.On the data front, UK data showed signs of stabilization in the housing market, as the slowdown triggered by April’s property transaction tax hike began to ease in June. Looking ahead, investors are turning their focus to Friday’s UK GDP release for fresh insights into whether the economy is beginning to recover from April’s contraction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3676(July 4th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3793(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3542(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3404(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday as the U.S. dollar pulled back, following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes.Meanwhile, President Trump intensified his tariff campaign on Wednesday by imposing 50% duties on U.S. copper imports and Brazilian goods, with implementation scheduled for August 1. In a further escalation, he issued tariff notices to seven more minor trading partners, adding to the 14 already targeted earlier in the week — all set to take effect on August 1 unless trade deals are reached. Seperately, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that only limited support existed for cutting rates this month, as most officials remained cautious due to inflation risks stemming from Trump’s tariff actions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6590(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6629(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6477(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6420(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar pulled back from a two-week high on Thursday as the Japanese yen regained strength across the board, recovering from earlier weakness seen this week. The rebound in the yen came amid stalled trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, with talks hitting a roadblock over Japan’s refusal to open its rice market. In response, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, set to take effect on August 1, and ruled out any extension of the deadline. Markets are now closely watching for further comments from both sides, with attention focused on whether talks will resume before the August 1 cutoff. Meanwhile, Japan’s producer price inflation eased to 2.9% year-over-year in June 2025, down from a slightly revised 3.2% in May. On a monthly basis, producer prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.1% drop in the previous month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.43(Higher BB)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.67(61.8%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.58(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.26(Jul 7th low).
Equities Recap
European equities gained on Thursday, supported by renewed optimism over a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU.
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.01 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.06 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.29 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, buoyed by a softer dollar and growing expectations of U.S. rate cuts later this year.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,327.42 per ounce by 1108 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $3,336.40.
Oil dipped slightly on Thursday as markets assessed the economic risks from Trump’s escalating tariff measures.
Brent crude futures were down 17 cents, or 0.24%, at $70.02 a barrel by 1100 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 24 cents, or 0.35%, to $68.14 a barrel.