Posted at 08 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Exports (MoM) (May): -1.4%, -0.2% forecast, -1.6% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (May): -3.8%, -0.9% forecast, 2.2% previous
• German Trade Balance (May): €18.4B, €15.7B forecast, €15.8B previous
• Finnish Trade Balance (May): €0.14B, €-0.10B previous
• French Exports (May): €48.9B, €49.1B previous
• French Imports (May): €56.7B, €56.7B previous
• French Trade Balance (May): €-7.8B, €-7.7B forecast, €-7.6B previous
• Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction: 1.905%, 1.873% previous
• German 5-Year Bobl Auction: 2.260%, 2.400% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:45 USD Redbook (YoY): 4.9%, no forecast, no previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Jun): 53.8, no forecast, no previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Jun): 49.1, 48.9 forecast, no previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun): 3.2% previous
•15:30 US 52-Week Bill Auction: 3.940% previous
•19:00 US Consumer Credit (May): $10.40B forecast, $17.87B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Tuesday as markets absorbed President Trump’s latest tariff proposals targeting 14 countries, including key partners like Japan and South Korea. The new import tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, replace the earlier July 9 deadline for trade deals, though Trump indicated the timeline remains flexible for countries willing to negotiate. EU sources confirmed the bloc is not among the recipients of the tariff letters and is actively pursuing exemptions from the 10% baseline levy. On the data front, German exports fell more than expected in May, with shipments to the U.S. declining for a second month, following earlier front-loading ahead of anticipated tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to developments surrounding U.S. tariff policy.U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday informed 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, that they face 25% tariffs starting August 1, while also signaling openness to further negotiations. Only Britain and Vietnam have secured deals to avoid the new levies, which are separate from existing tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminium.UK GDP data is scheduled for release later this week and is expected to draw significant market attention as investors look for clues on the economy’s trajectory amid persistent inflation pressures and evolving monetary policy expectations. The figures will offer insight into whether the UK is maintaining growth momentum or showing signs of stagnation, potentially influencing the Bank of England’s upcoming policy decisions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar jumped on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding its cash rate steady at 3.85%, defying expectations of a cut to 3.60%. The unexpected decision, following a two-day policy meeting, triggered a rally in the currency. In a rare split vote, the board voted six to three to keep rates unchanged, citing the need for more inflation data. Markets, which had priced in an 85% chance of an August 12 rate cut, now expect rates to bottom out at 3.10%, up from a previous forecast of 2.85%.At GMT 12:19, the Australian dollar was trading up 0.73% at 0.6536 against greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6568(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6600(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6497(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6410(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained ground on Tuesday as the Japanese yen weakened, pressured by renewed trade tensions stemming from President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcements. Trump confirmed plans to levy 25% tariffs on goods from several key trading partners, including Japan and South Korea, reigniting fears of an escalating trade conflict. On Monday, letters were sent to 14 countries outlining the new tariffs set to begin on August 1, though Trump later suggested he was open to deadline extensions if negotiations progressed. The news unsettled investors and weighed on Asian markets. Responding to the developments, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba affirmed that talks with Washington would continue in an effort to secure a fair and balanced trade agreement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.61(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.83(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.76(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares were mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed the latest developments in U.S. President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff strategy, which introduced fresh proposals for multiple countries and extended the deadline for securing trade agreements.
At GMT (13:38) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.22 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Tuesday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields, as President Donald Trump unveiled new tariff proposals targeting key trading partners, including Japan and South Korea.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,328.67 per ounce, as of 1207 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $3,338.20.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, pulling back from a nearly 2% gain in the previous session, as markets weighed renewed U.S. tariff concerns and a larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hike for August.
Brent crude futures fell 12 cents, or about 0.2%, to $69.46 a barrel by 1043 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 25 cents, or about 0.4%, to $67.68.