Posted at 08 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia NAB Business Confidence (Jun) 5, 2 previous
•Australia NAB Business Survey (Jun) 9, 0 previous
•Japan 5-Year JGB Auction 0.989%, 0.982% previous
•Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 3.85%, 3.60% forecast,3.85% previous
•German Exports (MoM) (May) -1.4%,-0.2% forecast,-1.6% previous
•German Imports (MoM) (May) -3.8%,0.9% forecast,2.2% previous
•German Trade Balance (May) 18.4B,15.7B forecast,15.8B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:30 Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction 1.873% previous
•09:30 German 5-Year Bobl Auction 2.400% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Tuesday as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff proposals targeting a broad group of countries. Trump sent letters to 14 nations, including major trade partners like Japan and South Korea, announcing sharply higher import tariffs set to take effect on August 1. The previous July 9 deadline for securing trade deals with the U.S. was pushed back to August 1, though Trump noted the date was flexible and that extensions could be granted if countries submitted proposals. According to EU sources, the European Union will not be among the recipients of the tariff letters and is currently seeking potential exemptions from the baseline 10% U.S. tariff. On the economic data front, German exports fell more than expected in May, with shipments to the U.S. declining for a second straight month—following a surge earlier in the year driven by pre-tariff stockpiling. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to developments surrounding U.S. tariff policy. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday escalated his trade war by notifying 14 countries including major exporters like Japan and South Korea, as well as smaller trade partners that they will face significantly higher tariffs starting August 1. In the letters sent, Trump left the door open for further negotiations but warned that any retaliatory measures would be met with a reciprocal response. Additionally, he issued a stern warning to leaders of the BRICS nations, gathered for a summit in Brazil, threatening an extra 10% tariff on their exports if they pursue policies deemed "anti-American." Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar surged on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly held its cash rate steady at 3.85%, defying widespread market expectations of a cut to 3.60%. Concluding its two-day meeting, the RBA delivered a surprise decision that triggered a rally in the currency. In a rare split vote, the monetary policy board voted six to three in favor of holding rates, citing the need for more data on inflation before making further adjustments. Markets had priced in an 85% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming August 12 meeting, but now anticipate the rate to bottom out at 3.10%, up from earlier forecasts of 2.85%.At GMT 05:73, the Australian dollar was trading up 0.73% at 0.6538 against greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6568(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6600(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6497(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6410(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as the Japanese yen weakened broadly, following renewed trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. Trump reiterated plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods from key trade partners, including Japan and South Korea, escalating concerns over the trajectory of his ongoing trade war. On Monday, he began informing a wide range of countries from major suppliers to smaller players that sharply higher U.S. tariffs would take effect on August 1. However, he later signaled flexibility, saying he was open to extensions if nations submitted proposals. The announcement unsettled markets and cast a downbeat tone across Asia on Tuesday. In response, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that negotiations with the U.S. would continue in pursuit of a mutually beneficial trade agreement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.61(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.83(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.76(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets took the latest twist in U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout in stride on Tuesday, with investors largely maintaining a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing trade uncertainty.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 1.81% , Hang Seng was up 1.10 %,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0. 36%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday as safe-haven demand from Trump’s new tariff proposals was offset by rising U.S. Treasury yields.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $3,331.85 per ounce, as of 0612 GMT. U.S. gold futures was steady at $3,341.80.
Oil prices dipped on Tuesday, pulling back from a nearly 2% gain in the prior session, as investors weighed fresh U.S. tariff developments and a larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hike for August.
Brent crude futures dipped 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $69.36 a barrel by 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 27 cents, or 0.4%, at $67.66 a barrel.