Posted at 07 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jul) 1.1 forecasst, 0.2 previous
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (May) 1.2% forecasst,2.3% previous
• EU Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -0.8% forecasst,0.1% previous
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.892% , 1.918% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.924% , 1.957% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.903%, 1.949% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Jun) 107.49 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.250% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.150% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Monday as investors remained cautious, closely watching developments around U.S. trade policy ahead of President Trump’s looming tariff deadline. Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. is nearing the completion of several trade agreements and will inform other nations of increased tariff rates by July 9. These new duties are expected to take effect on August 1. However, uncertainty lingers, as Trump added confusion on Friday by suggesting some tariffs could go as high as 70%—significantly above the 10%–50% range previously indicated in April.On the data front, Euro area retail sales fell for the first time in five months, and services output also declined in May, pointing to a potential second-quarter slowdown. According to Eurostat, retail sales dropped 0.7% month-on-month in May, reversing April’s 0.3% gain. The decline was slightly less than the expected 0.8% fall. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped modestly on Monday as cautious market sentiment took hold ahead of a busy week of economic data and renewed focus on the U.S. trade tariff timeline. Investors are bracing for a slew of UK data due Friday, including GDP, industrial production, manufacturing output, construction data, and the index of services all of which are expected to offer further insight into the country’s economic momentum. Additionally, the Bank of England will release its bi-annual Financial Stability Report on Wednesday, followed by a press conference with Governor Andrew Bailey, which may offer further clues on the central bank’s policy outlook.Meanwhile, attention globally is fixed on the Wednesday deadline set by the U.S. for finalizing trade deals, as several countries seek to avoid steep new tariffs on their exports. The UK was the first to secure an agreement with Washington in May, successfully avoiding additional duties on steel and aluminum. However, negotiations are still ongoing to remove the existing 25% tariffs on industrial metals. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped towards 0.6500 on Monday as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of key domestic and global developments. Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which begins its two-day policy meeting today. Markets widely expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut on Tuesday, in response to subdued inflation pressures and below-trend growth.Globally, confusion continues around the U.S. July 9 tariff deadline, with officials offering mixed signals, adding to investor uncertainty and risk aversion. Investors have grown somewhat used to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the initial market reaction was cautiousAt GMT 13:32, Australian dollar was trading up 0.70% at 0.6520 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6568(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6600(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6497(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6410(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as the Japanese yen weakened, pressured by rising concerns over U.S. trade policy and speculation that Japan may be excluded from upcoming trade agreements. The current 24% reciprocal tariff pause on Japanese imports is set to expire on July 9, and President Trump has suggested that the rate could increase even further.Adding to the uncertainty, Trump criticized Japan for its reluctance to import U.S.-grown rice and accused Tokyo of unfair practices in the automotive sector. On Tuesday, he expressed doubt about reaching a trade deal with Japan, warning that tariffs could rise to 30% or even 35%well above the 24% rate announced on April 2.It remains unclear whether Trump will continue trade negotiations with Japan or bypass talks altogether and issue a formal letter imposing new tariff rates. The lack of clarity has fueled investor caution, contributing to yen weakness and U.S. dollar strength. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.87(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.01(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.23(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.45(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares traded flat on Monday as investors remained cautious, closely watching for any trade-related developments ahead of President Trump’s looming tariff deadline.
At GMT (13:38) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.78 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.17percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a near one-week low on Monday as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment, with investors awaiting clarity on trade negotiations ahead of President Trump’s tariff deadline.
Spot gold was down 0.9% at $3,303.93 per ounce by 1148 GMT. U.S. gold futures shed 0.9% to $3,313.10.
Oil prices rebounded on Monday, overcoming early losses sparked by a larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hike and U.S. tariff concerns, as tight physical supply conditions provided underlying support.
Brent crude futures fell as low as $67.22 a barrel but by 1145 GMT were up 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.66. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.99, down 1 cent, and up from an earlier low of $65.40.