Posted at 07 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (May) -0.1%, 0.2% previous
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (May) 1.1% ,-3.4% previous
• Japan Leading Index (May) 105.3, 105.3 forecasst,104.2 previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 2.5%, 2.6% previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, -0.1% forecasst,-0.3% previous
•German Industrial Production (MoM) (May) 1.2%, -0.6% forecasst,-1.6% previous
•German Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 1.20%, -2.24% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jul) 1.1 forecasst, 0.2 previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (May) 1.2% forecasst,2.3% previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -0.8% forecasst,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as investors remained cautious, closely watching developments around U.S. trade policy ahead of President Trump’s looming tariff deadline. Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. is nearing the completion of several trade agreements and will inform other nations of increased tariff rates by July 9. These new duties are expected to take effect on August 1. However, uncertainty lingers, as Trump added confusion on Friday by suggesting some tariffs could go as high as 70%—significantly above the 10%–50% range previously indicated in April. Meanwhile, a White House official said U.S. trade negotiations with the European Union are ongoing, with optimism that a deal could be reached soon. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dropped marginally on Monday as investors remained cautious ahead of the deadline for a 90-day U.S. tariff delay. The U.S. is close to concluding multiple trade deals in the next days and will inform other nations of higher tariff rates by July 9, Trump stated on Sunday, with the higher rates due to take effect on August 1.In April, Trump declared a 10% base tariff on most countries, with extra taxes of up to 50%, before deferring the implementation date for all but 10% of those tariffs until July 9. The revised date now gives a three-week respite. Meanwhile, Trump claimed the U.S. would apply an extra 10% tax on countries who align themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of the BRICS group of emerging nations, without elaborating or expanding on the Anti-American policies . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped towards 0.6500 on Monday as investor caution grew ahead of Trump's tariff deadline and upcoming Australia's rate decision. Trump confirmed Sunday that higher tariffs on most U.S. trade partners will start August 1 after the 90-day pause ends Wednesday.Trump said trade deals are nearly finalized and that a dozen countries will be notified of new tariffs on Monday. Meanwhile, markets are closely watching Australia as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision.The RBA is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60% on Tuesday to support weak growth and tame soft inflation.At GMT 07:59, Australian dollar was trading up 0.76% at 0.6506 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6568(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6600(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6497(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6410(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as traders remained on edge for any trade-related developments ahead of President Trump’s tariff deadline. Most U.S. trade partners are poised to face significantly higher tariffs as the 90-day moratorium on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal duties expires this Wednesday. Speaking on Sunday, Trump clarified that the new, steeper tariff rates will take effect from August 1, marking a major escalation in his administration’s trade strategy. Trump also stated that the U.S. is close to finalizing multiple trade agreements in the coming days, and added that around a dozen countries would receive formal notification letters on Monday, outlining their updated tariff rates. The move signals a tightening of U.S. trade policy, with markets remaining on alert for further details and potential retaliatory responses. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.87(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.01(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.23(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.45(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Stocks across Asia edged lower Monday as unclear messages from U.S. officials on tariffs unsettled investors.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.17% , Hang Seng was down 0.27 %,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0. 56%
Commodities Recap
The yellow metal slipped on Monday as investor appetite for safety eased following Trump’s announcement of trade deal progress and delayed tariff actions for certain nations.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,311.09 per ounce as of 0626 GMT. U.S. gold futures lost 0.7% to $3,320.30.
Oil prices declined on Monday after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced a larger-than-anticipated output increase for August, adding to pressure from ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and their potential drag on global demand.
Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.35%, to $68.06 a barrel by 0642 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.31, down 69 cents, or 1.03%.