Posted at 04 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jun): 2.7%, 2.7% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun): 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
•German Factory Orders (MoM) (May): -1.4%, -0.2% forecast, 1.6% previous
•French Industrial Production (MoM) (May): -0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -1.4% previous
•Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (May): 1.7%, 0.6% previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Jun): 50.2, 50.5 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Jun): 44.8, 44.4 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Jun): 41.6, 43.1 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Jun): 45.2, 45.6 previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 1.3%, 3.8% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jun): 48.8, 48.6 forecast, 47.9 previous
•UK New Passenger Cars Registration (Jun): 191,316.0, 150,070.0 previous
•Eurozone PPI (YoY) (May): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•Eurozone PPI (MoM) (May): -0.6%, -0.6% forecast, -2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•16:00 Italian Car Registration (YoY) (Jun) -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro pared gains against the dollar on Friday as investor focus turned to President Trump’s July 9 deadline for securing trade deals with the U.S. Trump announced that letters would be sent to countries starting Friday, outlining the tariff rates they would face a shift from earlier promises to finalize numerous deals ahead of the deadline, when tariffs could rise significantly. So far, only China, the UK, and newly added Vietnam have reached agreements. Trump said he expects a few more deals soon, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted a deal with India is close. However, talks with Japan and South Korea once expected to be early successes appear to have stalled. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped on Friday as investor caution grew amid UK fiscal uncertainty and broader global concerns ahead of the U.S. tariff deadline. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves faces a widening budget gap after welfare reforms were scaled back, with fewer cost-saving measures than expected. This has fueled fears of possible tax hikes or cuts elsewhere. Market sentiment also weakened globally after President Trump confirmed the U.S. would begin sending tariff rate notifications to trade partners. On the data front, the UK S&P Construction PMI rose to 48.8 in June from 47.9 in May, marking a six-month high. While homebuilding showed growth, commercial construction continued to decline amid economic headwinds. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased from an eight-month high on Friday as traders turned cautious ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. With the temporary suspension of U.S. levies set to expire, markets are bracing for potential volatility unless a calm resolution emerges. So far, only the UK, Vietnam, and China have finalized trade deals, while other countries race to avoid steep duties that could hurt their economies. Trump said many nations would receive letters on Friday detailing upcoming tariff rates, marking a shift from his initial plan to negotiate individual agreements. The original tariffs, announced on April 2, ranged from 10% to 50%, but most were temporarily lowered to 10% to allow time for talks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6623(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6672(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6562(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6518(20 SMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped lower on Friday as market mood became cautious ahead of the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline. Initial euphoria about U.S.-Vietnam trade discussions dissipated owing to insufficient specifics and tariffs staying above pre-April 2 levels. President Trump announced a change in tariff approach, saying letters describing increased tariffs to trade partners will be distributed beginning Friday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted an agreement with India is near, however discussions with Japan and South Korea have stagnated despite previous promises. On the statistics front, the U.S. labor market remained solid, with 147,000 jobs gained in June and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, reinforcing predictions that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.67(20 SMA)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.07(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.73(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European markets sank over 1% on Friday, as investors considered uncertainties about U.S. trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 deadline.
At GMT (13:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.97 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday and were poised for a weekly gain, aided by a drop in the U.S. dollar and safe-haven inflows, as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for trade agreements loomed.
Spot gold was up 0.3% to $3,336.39 per ounce, as of 1211 GMT. The precious metal is up about 1.9% this week.U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $3,346.60.
Oil prices dropped about 1% on Friday, driven by expectations that OPEC+ members would vote this weekend to expand production and an Iranian reaffirmation of its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.
Brent crude futures were down 62 cents, or 0.9%, at $68.18 a barrel by 1118 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 62 cents, or 0.93%, to $66.38. Trade was thinned by the U.S. Independence Day holiday.