Posted at 04 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Household Spending (YoY) (May) 4.7%, 1.3%forecast,-0.1% previous
•Japan Household Spending (MoM) (May) 4.6% ,0.4%forecast,-1.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jun): 2.8% previous
•07:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun): 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•07:00 Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (May): 0.6% previous
•07:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Jun): 50.5 previous
•07:30 HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Jun): 44.4 previous
•07:30 HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Jun): 43.1 previous
•07:30 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Jun): 45.6 previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (Jun): 1.6% previous
•08:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (May): 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•08:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 3.7% previous
•08:00 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jun): 48.6 forecast, 47.9 previous
•09:00 Eurozone PPI (MoM) (May): -0.6% forecast, -2.2% previous
•09:00 Eurozone PPI (YoY) (May): 0.3%forecast, 0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•08:00 ECB's Elderson Speaks
•07:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as dollar pared gains after President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill across the final hurdle and pressure mounted on countries to secure trade deals with the United States. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" of spending and tax cuts that is estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt. Trump is expected to sign the bill into law on Friday.With the U.S. closed for Independence Day, attention turns to Trump's July 9 deadline when sweeping tariffs take effect on countries like Japan that have not yet secured trade agreements. On the data front, the U.S. Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Thursday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs in June .The dollar index edged 0.1% lower to 96.93, trimming its 0.4% advance on Thursday. The euro was up 0.2% at $1.1775. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose slightly on Friday as the dollar pulled back some of Thursday’s gains, with investors cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. On Thursday, Trump’s tax-cut bill passed its final hurdle in Congress, making the 2017 cuts permanent, introducing new tax breaks for his 2024 campaign, and funding immigration enforcement. The Congressional Budget Office projects the bill will add $3.4 trillion to the current $36.2 trillion national debt over the next decade. Trump also said tariff rate letters would be sent to trading partners starting Friday, marking a shift from earlier plans for individual trade deals. Back on April 2, he had announced reciprocal tariffs of 10%–50%, later cutting most rates to 10% until July 9 to allow room for talks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held near eight month high on Friday as dollar pared gains as market participants took a cautious stance ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline. Investors welcomed U.S.-Vietnam trade talks, hoping for broader progress, but optimism faded as key tariffs stayed above pre-April 2 levels and details remained scarce. Trump said many countries will receive letters on Friday outlining their tariff rates, signaling a shift from his earlier plan to make individual trade deals.On April 2, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs of 10%–50%, but later cut most rates to 10% until July 9 to allow time for negotiations.At GMT 06:41, Australian dollar was trading up 0.05% at 0.6575 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6623(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6672(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6562(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6518(20 SMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as investor sentiment turned cautious ahead of the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline. Initial optimism over U.S.-Vietnam trade talks faded due to limited details and tariffs remaining above pre-April 2 levels. President Trump announced a shift in tariff strategy, saying letters outlining new duties to trading partners would be sent starting Friday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted a deal with India is close, though talks with Japan and South Korea have stalled despite earlier hopes. On the data front, the U.S. labor market remained strong, with 147,000 jobs added in June and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. At GMT 06:38, the dollar was trading down 0.39% at 144.25 against Japanese yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.67(20 SMA)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.07(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.73(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks pulled back from recent highs on Friday as investors grew cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.
South Korea’s KOSPI was down 1.99% , Hang Seng was down 0.77 %,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0. 09%
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed on Friday, heading for a weekly gain as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid fiscal concerns following the passage of Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill in Congress.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,340.79 per ounce, as of 0424 GMT. Bullion is up more than 2% this week.U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,351.
Oil futures declined on Friday as Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, and expectations grew that major producers would agree to increase output over the weekend.
Brent crude futures were down 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $68.58 a barrel by 0445 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 12 cents, or 0.18%, to $66.88.