Posted at 03 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Average Weekly Hours (Jun): 34.2, 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,964K, 1,960K forecast, 1,964K previous
• US Exports (May): 279.00B, , 289.40B previous
• US Government Payrolls (Jun): 73.0K, 7.0K previous
• US Imports (May): 350.50B, 351.00B previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 233K, 240K forecast, 237K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 241.50K,245.25K previous
• US Manufacturing Payrolls (Jun): -7K, -5K forecast, -7K previous
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): 147K, 111K forecast, 144K previous
• US Participation Rate (Jun): 62.3%, 62.4% previous
• US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): 74K, 105K forecast, 137K previous
• US Trade Balance (May): -71.50B, -69.90B forecast, -60.30B previous
• US U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun): 7.7%, 7.8% previous
• US Unemployment Rate (Jun): 4.1%, 4.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
• Canada Exports (May): 60.81B, 60.12B previous
• Canada Imports (May): 66.66B , 67.72B previous
• Canada Trade Balance (May): -5.90B, -6.00B forecast, -7.60B previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): 52.9, 52.8 forecast, 52.8 previous
• US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): 52.9, 53.1 forecast, 53.1 previous
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (May): 15.5%, 15.5% previous
• US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (May): 0.5%, 0.5% previous
• US Factory Orders (MoM) (May): 8.2%, 8.1% forecast, -3.9% previous
• US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (May): 0.2%, -0.6% previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Jun): 54.2, 50.0 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jun): 47.2, 49.5 forecast, 50.7 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Jun): 51.3, 48.2 forecast, 46.4 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 50.8, 50.8 forecast, 49.9 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun): 67.5, 68.9 forecast, 68.7 previous
• US Natural Gas Storage: 55B, 48B forecast, 96B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 23:30 Japan Household Spending (YoY) (May) 1.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
• 23:30 Japan Household Spending (MoM) (May) 0.4% forecast, -1.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as dollar dipped after data showing the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected, signalling that the Federal Reserve might take longer to cut interest rates. U.S. Labor Department data on Thursday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs in June. Economists polled had forecast a rise of 110,000. The report was published a day early because of the July 4 U.S. Independence Day holiday. Market expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its July meeting rose to a 95.3% probability, up from 76.2% a day ago, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. Separate data showed, Eurozone services activity edged back into expansion in June, but the pace was tepid as demand stayed soft despite improving business sentiment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Thursday following stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that underscored the resilience of the labor market. U.S. job growth was solid in June, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market remained stable and potentially enabling the Federal Reserve to delay resuming its rate-cutting cycle until September. Data showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs last month, 33% more than the 110,000 jobs forecasted by economists. Unemployment fell to 4.1% last month, a better result than the 4.3% expected. Separate data showed, the S&P UK services PMI showed that British services sector activity expanded at the fastest rate in almost a year, while the prices charged rose at the slowest pace in nearly four years. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against greenback on Thursday as market assessed domestic and U.S. economic data, while a U.S.-Vietnam trade pact renewed optimism around global trade deals ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. A preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam offered a boost to market sentiment and helped support prices across risk assets. Several key U.S. trading partners including the European Union and Japan have yet to finalize agreements with Washington. On the data front, Canada recorded a trade deficit of C$5.90 billion ($4.34 billion) in May, as a rise in exports was overshadowed by a larger increase in imports, Statistics Canada reported on Thursday.US Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs in June, after rising 144,000 in May, the Labor Department showed on Thursday. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3560 per U.S. dollar after touching its strongest intraday level since June 17 at 1.3557. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3656(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3752 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3564(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3528(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar moved higher on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates as early as previously anticipated. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 144,000 advance in May, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Thursday also showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% last month from 4.2% in May. The report was published a day early because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Despite the bigger-than-expected rise in payrolls, job growth is slowing and concentrated in a few industries. Other economic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed U.S. services sector activity picked up in June as orders rebounded, but employment contracted for the third time this year. The dollar strengthened 0.95% to 145.03 against the Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.20(Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.27(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.73(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 143.39(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European equities finished higher on Thursday as investors took in stride a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, with bank stocks leading gains as emphasis remained on a possible trade agreement between the European Union and the United States.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.21 percent.
Wall Street rallied to record closing highs on Thursday, propelled by a rally in Nvidia as it neared a $4 trillion valuation and a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report lifted investor sentiment.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.77% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.83% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.02% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold dropped 1% on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will defer rate cut, reducing the metal's appeal.
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,328.63 per ounce as of 0200 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), after falling over 1% earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $3,342.9.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as concerns over U.S. tariffs potentially dampening energy demand outweighed expectations of a supply increase from major crude producers.
Brent crude futures settled 31 cents, or 0.45%, lower to $68.80 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 45 cents, or 0.67%, to $67 in thin trade on the eve of the Independence Day holiday.