Posted at 03 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• HCOB France Composite PMI (Jun): 49.2, 48.5 forecast, 49.3 previous
• HCOB France Services PMI (Jun): 49.6, 48.7 forecast, 48.9 previous
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Jun): 50.4, 50.4 forecast, 48.5 previous
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jun): 49.7, 49.4 forecast, 47.1 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jun): 50.6, 50.2 forecast, 50.2 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jun): 50.5, 50.0 forecast, 49.7 previous
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): 52.0, 50.7 forecast, 50.3 previous
• UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): 52.8, 51.3 forecast, 50.9 previous
• Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction: 3.163%, 3.208% previous
• Spanish 15-Year Obligacion Auction: 3.671%, 3.531% previous
• Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction: 2.159%, 2.118% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jun): 3.9% forecast, 3.9% previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun): 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Jun): 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,960K forecast, 1,974K previous
•12:30 US Exports (May): 289.40B previous
•12:30 US Government Payrolls (Jun): -1.0K previous
•12:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims: 240K forecast, 236K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 245.00K previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Jun): -5K forecast, -8K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): 111K forecast, 139K previous
•12:30 US Participation Rate (Jun): 62.4% previous
•12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): 105K forecast, 140K previous
•12:30 US Trade Balance (May): -69.90B forecast, -61.60B previous
•12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun): 7.8% previous
•12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Jun): 4.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Exports (May): 60.44B previous
•12:30 Canada Imports (May): 67.58B previous
•12:30 Canada Trade Balance (May): -6.00B, -7.14B previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jun): 3.9%, 3.9% forecast, 3.9% previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): 52.8, 52.8 forecast, 52.8 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): 53.1 forecast, 53.1 53.1 previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (May): 8.1% forecast, -3.7% previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 50.8 forecast,, 49.9 previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.000% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.390% previous
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 432 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 547 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors attentively monitored U.S. payrolls report and prospects for trade agreements ahead of a July 9 deadline. The primary risk event for markets will be the U.S. payrolls figures due later in the day. Analysts are forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate moving up to 4.3% but the stakes are high after a private sector payrolls report astonished with the first decline in over two years.The resilience of the labour market is a significant reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to hold off on reducing rates until they can assess the actual impact of tariffs on inflation. Futures imply just a 25% probability for a rate cut this month from the Fed, which has not eased policy at all this year. Mediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Thursday after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office publicly supported Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, seeking to soothe investor apprehension over the UK's fiscal prognosis. The move follows a tumultuous 48 hours in UK politics, marked by the government’s U-turn on planned welfare reforms and Reeves’ emotive appearance in Parliament, which fuelled speculation over policy cohesion and fiscal discipline.The reversal on welfare cuts, seen as a crucial budgetary measure, raised red flags for investors already concerned about the government’s borrowing trajectory. Investor attention will turn to the U.S. Labor Department's comprehensive employment report for June, slated for release on Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday, after data indicated private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined from multi-month highs on Thursday as investors turned cautious ahead of a key U.S. employment report that could strengthen the case for imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Markets remain on alert after a lackluster U.S. private employment reading indicated to potential downside risks for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.On the data front, Australia’s commodities trade surplus fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in May, brought down by weaker LNG exports even as capital goods imports surged.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s goods trade surplus narrowed significantly to A$2.2 billion in May, down from a downwardly revised A$4.9 billion in April.This comes after Wednesday’s disappointing retail sales report, which pointed to subdued domestic consumption in May reinforcing expectations of a rate cut at next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6623(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6672(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6562(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6518(20 SMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar moved higher on Thursday but gains were limited as investors exercised caution ahead of the closely monitored U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report due later in the day.Markets are increasingly sensitive to labor market signals, especially after Wednesday’s ADP employment data showed a surprise contraction in private sector jobs the first decline in over two years. Analysts are forecasting a rise of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to move up to 4.3%. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said the central bank should recommence interest rate increases after a temporary halt to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. He expressed confidence in Japan’s progress toward its inflation target but noted it's too early to foresee the timetable of the next hike. Takata, seen as slightly hawkish, emphasized that clarity on U.S. trade developments is required before further tightening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.67(20 SMA)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.07(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.73(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European equities crept up on Thursday, backed by lessening U.S.-Sino trade tensions and fresh hope about global trade treaties after a U.S.-Vietnam agreement ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices was range-bound on Thursday as investors anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls data that might impact the Federal Reserve's plan for interest rate decreases.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,347.44 an ounce by 1128 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased by 0.1% to $3,358.
Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday as the possibility of U.S. tariffs being reinstated raised demand concerns ahead of an expected supply boost by major producers.
Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.90 a barrel by 1217 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.30.