Posted at 03 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand???ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)???-2.3%, 1.9% previous
•Australia???Exports (MoM) (May)???-2.7%,?-1.7% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (May)???3.8%,1.6% previous
•Australia ???Trade Balance (May)???2.238B,5.080B forecast,4.859B previous
•China???Caixin Services PMI (Jun)???50.6?,??51.0? forecast,??51.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45?? HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Jun)? ?52.5 previous
•07:45?? HCOB Italy Services PMI (Jun)?? ???52.6?? forecast,???53.2 previous
•07:50?? HCOB France Composite PMI (Jun)? ??48.5?? forecast, 49.3 previous
•07:50? ?HCOB France Services PMI (Jun)? 48.7? forecast, 48.9 previous
•07:55?? HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Jun)? ??50.4? forecast, ?48.5 previous
•07:55?? HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jun)? ?49.4? forecast, 47.1 previous
•08:00?? HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jun)??? 50.2?? forecast, 50.2 previous
•08:00?? HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jun)? ?50.0? forecast, ??49.7 previous
•08:30??UK???S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun)???50.7? forecast, ??50.3 previous
•08:30??UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)???51.3? forecast, ?50.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors closely watched U.S. payrolls report and prospects for trade deals ahead of a July 9 deadline. The main risk event for markets will be the U.S. payrolls figures due later in the day. Analysts are forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3% but the stakes are high after a private sector payrolls report surprised with the first fall in over two years.The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to hold off on cutting rates until they can gauge the real impact of tariffs on inflation. Futures imply just a 25% probability for a rate cut this month from the Fed, which has not eased policy at all this year. Mediate resistance can be seen at 1.1831(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1914(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Thursday after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office publicly backed Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, aiming to calm investor anxiety over the UK's fiscal outlook. The move follows a tumultuous 48 hours in UK politics, marked by the government’s U-turn on planned welfare reforms and Reeves’ emotional appearance in Parliament, which fueled speculation over policy cohesion and fiscal discipline.The reversal on welfare cuts, seen as a key budgetary measure, raised red flags for investors already concerned about the government’s borrowing trajectory. Investor attention will turn to the U.S. Labor Department's comprehensive employment report for June, due for release on Thursday ahead of the July 4 holiday, after data showed private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3576(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased from multi-month highs on Thursday as investors turned cautious ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could strengthen the case for imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Markets remain on edge after a soft U.S. private employment reading pointed to potential downside risks for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.On the data front, Australia’s goods trade surplus fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in May, dragged down by weaker LNG exports even as capital goods imports surged.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply to A$2.2 billion in May, down from a downwardly revised A$4.9 billion in April.This comes after Wednesday’s disappointing retail sales report, which pointed to subdued domestic consumption in May reinforcing expectations of a rate cut at next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6623(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6672(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6562(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6518(20 SMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday but gains were limited as investors exercised caution ahead of the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report due later in the day.Markets are increasingly sensitive to labor market signals, especially after Wednesday’s ADP employment data showed a surprise contraction in private sector jobs the first decline in over two years. Analysts are forecasting a rise of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.3%. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said the central bank should resume interest rate hikes after a brief pause to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. He expressed confidence in Japan’s progress toward its inflation goal but noted it's too early to predict the timing of the next hike. Takata, seen as slightly hawkish, emphasized that clarity on U.S. trade developments is needed before further tightening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.67(20 SMA)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.07(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.73(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian markets traded cautiously on Thursday as investors awaited the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could strengthen the case for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 1.34% , China A50 was up 0.57 %,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0. 16%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Thursday, with investors staying on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could offer fresh signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move.
Spot gold held steady at $3,357.96 per ounce as of 0601 GMT, while U.S. gold futures edged up 0.2% to $3,369.10.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, retreating from a 3% gain in the previous session, as investors grew cautious over the potential return of higher U.S. tariffs that could dampen fuel demand.
Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.65%, to $68.66 a barrel by 0645 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 44 cents, or 0.66%, to $67.01 a barrel