Posted at 02 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) -33K, 99Kforecast, 29K previous
• US All Car Sales (Jun): 2.54M, , 2.60M previous
• US All Truck Sales (Jun): 12.80M, 13.01M previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories: 3.845M, -3.500M forecast, -5.836M previous
• US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): 0.118M, 0.125M previous
• US Crude Oil Imports: 2.940M, 0.531M previous
• US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.493M, -0.464M previous
• US Distillate Fuel Production: 0.245M, -0.185M previous
• US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: -1.710M, -1.650M forecast, -4.066M previous
• US Gasoline Production: -0.491M, 0.008M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:00 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Jun): 51.3 forecast, 51.3 previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: 615.5B previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: -524.3B previous
•00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jun): 51.5 forecast, 51.0 previous
•01:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM): 1.9% previous
•01:30 Australia Exports (MoM) (May): -2.4% previous
•01:30 Australia Imports (MoM) (May): 1.1% previous
•01:30 Australia Trade Balance (May): 5.080B forecast, 5.413B previous
•01:45 China Caixin Services PMI (Jun): 51.0 forecast, 51.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded flat against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors monitored U.S. trade negotiations ahead of President Donald Trump's July tariff deadline. Investors remained cautious after Trump ruled out extending the trade deal deadline. Talks with Japan remained uncertain, while an agreement was expected with India and finalized with Vietnam. Investors also focused on Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending measure, which seeks to reduce taxes and social programs while significantly increasing the national debt as it proceeds through Congress.House Republicans scheduled a procedural vote on the bill, which could indicate whether they have enough support to advance it through Congress. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation eased up last month to the European Central Bank's 2% target, affirming the era of soaring prices is over and likely transferring policymaker focus to tariff-related volatility. The euro edged up 0.01% to $1.1799.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1847(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1933(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped lower on Wednesday as political and fiscal turmoil in the UK overshadows weak U.S. data. The sharp move lower was triggered by escalating political and fiscal concerns after the UK government abruptly reversed its proposed welfare cuts. The unexpected U-turn sparked worries over the government's fiscal discipline and added to broader political uncertainty, fueling a selloff in UK assets, including sterling. The pound failed to capitalize on a weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP employment report, which showed a surprise 33K decline in private sector jobs, far below the 99K forecast. The muted reaction suggests that sterling's negative sentiment is currently being driven more by domestic instability . Sterling tumbled 0.83% to $1.3631 after dropping as much as 1.35% and was on pace for its biggest daily percentage drop since June 17.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3796(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3895(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3592(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3448(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as investors took into account a potential abatement of global trade tensions and clues on the state of the U.S. labor market.U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June as economic uncertainty hampered hiring, the ADP National Employment Report showed.U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States said it will impose a lower-than-promised 20% tariff on many Vietnamese exports. The deterioration in Canada's manufacturing sector deepened in June as U.S. tariffs undercut demand. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI edged down to 45.6 in June from 46.1 in May. The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3595 per U.S. dollar , stopping just short of the two-week high it touched on Tuesday at 1.3588.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3668(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3555(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3527(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Wednesday after data supported market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.the ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June, suggesting the Fed might cut rates as soon as September. Trump announced Vietnam had reached a trade deal with the U.S., which lowers planned tariffs and could push other countries to reach similar agreements on duties ahead of the July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to come in Investors will now look ahead to the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday for clues on how soon the Federal Reserve could lower borrowing costs. The dollar was up 0.15% to 143.635 against the Japanese yen , on track to snap two straight sessions of losses. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.85(20 SMA)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.73(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.20(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Wednesday as investor focus remained on global trade negotiations ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.12percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.99 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at record highs on Wednesday, lifted by tech gains and a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal that eased trade tension fears.
Dow Jones traded down at 0.02% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.47 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.94% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday as soft U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of earlier Fed rate cuts, with investors awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for further policy signals.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,348.60 per ounce, as of 0151 p.m. EDT (1751 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $3,359.7.
Oil prices climbed 3% on Wednesday as Iran halted cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and the U.S. struck a trade deal with Vietnam, though gains were capped by an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude settled $2.00 higher, or 3%, to $69.11 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.00, or 3.1%, to $67.45 a barrel.