Posted at 02 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (May): 6.5%, 6.0% forecast, 6.1% previous
• Greek Unemployment Rate (May): 7.9%, 8.3% previous
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (May): 6.3%, 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
• German 10-Year Bund Auction: 2.630%, 2.540% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) 99Kforecast, 37K previous
•13:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 46.1 previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: -3.500M forecast, -5.836M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): 0.125M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports: 0.531M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.464M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production: -0.185M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: -1.650M, -4.066M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production: 0.008M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles: -0.716M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW): 1.5% previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories: 0.660M, -2.075M previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Apr) -23.88B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors weighed the outlook for global trade negotiations ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.Speaking on Tuesday, Trump ruled out an extension of the deadline for countries to finalize trade deals with the U.S. While he voiced optimism about a potential agreement with India, he remained skeptical about a similar breakthrough with Japan. Meanwhile, the European Union’s trade chief is set to hold talks in Washington this week, aiming to prevent a new round of U.S. tariffs on European goods. On the data front, unemployment in the eurozone edged up slightly in May 2025, with the jobless rate rising to 6.3%, compared to 6.2% in April, Eurostat reported on Wednesday. Despite the monthly uptick, the figure marked an improvement from 6.4% in May 2024.Across the broader European Union, the unemployment rate held firm at 5.9% in May—unchanged from April and modestly lower than 6.0% a year earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1847(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1933(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Wednesday as market participants awaited the June U.S. jobs data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Investors are closely watching the U.S. ADP employment data due Wednesday and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank intends to 'wait and learn more' about the impact of tariffs on inflation before considering rate cuts, once again deflecting President Trump’s calls for immediate and aggressive easing. Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts by Fed totaling 50 basis points this year, with the first expected to begin in September. Meanwhile, in the absence of major UK data releases, markets will monitor BoE’s Alan Taylor’s appearance at the ECB’s Sintra conference. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3796(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3895(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3592(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3448(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar pulled back modestly on Wednesday after retail sales data showed little growth for a fourth consecutive month.Australian retail sales showed minimal growth for the fourth consecutive month in May, as increased spending on clothing was offset by an unusual decline in food salesstrengthening expectations for another interest rate cut next week. Australian retail sales edged up 0.2% in May, following a flat reading in April, according to ABS data released Wednesday.The data undermined optimism that lower borrowing costs and stronger incomes would drive a rebound in household demand, pressuring the RBA to cut its consumption outlook once more.With economic growth weak and inflation easing, investors now see a 96% chance of a quarter-point RBA rate cut next Tuesday from the current 3.85%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6623(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6672(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6562(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6518(20 SMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar recovered some ground on Wednesday as Japanese yen attracts some sellers amid doubts over a US-Japan trade deal. President Trump voiced frustration with Tokyo’s trade stance on both Monday and Tuesday, suggesting growing tensions between the two nations over the pace and terms of a potential agreement. Trump warned he could hike tariffs on Japanese goods to 30–35%, well above the 24% rate declared on April 2 and delayed pending the July 9 deadline. The U.S. labor market showed resilience in May with a jump in job openings, prompting investors to closely watch Thursday’s payrolls for rate cut signals. Focus now shifts to U.S. ADP employment data due later in the day for further insights into labour market conditions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.85(20 SMA)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.73(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.20(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European equities were mixed on Wednesday as markets focused on upcoming trade deal negotiations before the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.08 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.96 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday as investors turned their attention to the U.S. fiscal outlook and lingering uncertainty surrounding the July 9 deadline for new U.S. tariffs.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,340.67 per ounce at 1157 GMT. U.S. gold futures were steady at $3,351.10.
Oil gained modestly on Wednesday as Iran’s move to end coordination with the U.N. nuclear watchdog fueled geopolitical concerns.
Brent crude added 92 cents, or 1.4%, to $68.03 a barrel at 1125 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $66.34 a barrel.