Posted at 02 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia AIG Construction Index (Jun) -14.9, -6.4 previous
• Australia AIG Manufacturing Index (Jun) -29.3 , -23.5 previous
•Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Jun) -3.3% , -3.5% forecast, -3.4% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (May) 8.00%, 5.50% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (May) 3.2%, 4.2% forecast, -4.1% previous
• Australia Private House Approvals (May) 0.5%,5.9% previous
• Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 Greek Unemployment Rate (May): 8.3% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate (May): 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
•09:30 German 10-Year Bund Auction: 2.540% previous
•10:00 Irish Unemployment Rate (Jun): 4.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 08:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
• 10:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors closely watched U.S. payrolls report and prospects for trade deals ahead of a July 9 deadline. Trump expressed optimism on Tuesday about a potential trade deal with India but was skeptical about reaching a similar agreement with Japan. He added that he was not considering an extension of the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals. Meanwhile, U.S. Senate Republicans narrowly passed Trump's tax-and-spending bill on Tuesday, a package cutting taxes, reducing social safety net programmes, and boosting military spending, while adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt. Markets await Thursday’s U.S. employment figures to gauge the likely pace and extent of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. The euro eased 0.21% to $1.1782.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1847(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1933(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1709(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Wednesday as market assessed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts.Powell reiterated that the U.S. central bank plans to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates, again setting aside U.S. President Donald Trump's demands for immediate and deep rate cuts.U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in May, but a decline in hiring added to signs that the labour market had shifted into lower gear amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs on imports.Investors are now awaiting U.S. ADP employment data, due later in the day, and nonfarm payroll figures on Thursday for further insights into labour market conditions. Sterling eased to $1.3722, sitting just below Tuesday's high of $1.3787, a level last seen in October 2021. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3796(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3895(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3592(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3448(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar pulled back modestly on Wednesday after retail sales data showed little growth for a fourth consecutive month.Australian retail sales showed minimal growth for the fourth consecutive month in May, as increased spending on clothing was offset by an unusual decline in food salesstrengthening expectations for another interest rate cut next week. Australian retail sales edged up 0.2% in May, following a flat reading in April, according to ABS data released Wednesday.The data undermined optimism that lower borrowing costs and stronger incomes would drive a rebound in household demand, pressuring the RBA to cut its consumption outlook once more.With economic growth weak and inflation easing, investors now see a 96% chance of a quarter-point RBA rate cut next Tuesday from the current 3.85%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6623(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6672(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6562(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6518(20 SMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Wednesday as investors kept their focus on a looming U.S. tariff deadline as well as cues on the future path of the Federal Reserve's benchmark policy rates.The United States could reach a trade deal with India, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, paving the way for the South Asian country to avoid a 26% levy that was announced on April 2 and paused till July 9.Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated that the U.S. central bank plans to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates. Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed the U.S. labour market remained resilient with a rise in job openings for May, sharpening the focus on the payrolls report due on Thursday as investors try to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates next. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.85(20 SMA)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.73(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.20(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares edged lower Wednesday as concerns over U.S. interest rates and the approaching July 9 trade deadline weighed on sentiment.
South Korea’s KOSPI was down0.47% , China A50 was up 0.11%,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 58%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices stabilized as traders awaited U.S. payroll figures and digested Powell’s measured approach to monetary easing.
Spot gold was stable at $3,337.12 per ounce, as of 0617 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were steady at$3,346.
Oil prices remained steady, caught between expectations of increased production from major suppliers and conflicting economic cues from the U.S.
Brent crude slipped 4 cents to $67.07 a barrel at 0618 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9 cents to $65.36 a barrel.