Posted at 01 July 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q2): 89.4%, 90.5% previous.
•New Zealand Building Consents (MoM) (May): 10.4%, -14.6% previous.
•Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 50.6, 51.0 forecast, 51.0 previous.
•Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q2): 11.5%, 3.1% previous.
•Japan Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q2): -5.6%, -10.0% previous.
•Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q2): 12, 9 forecast, 12 previous.
•Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2): 13, 10 forecast, 12 previous.
•Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2): 27, 29 forecast, 28 previous.
•Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2): 34, 34 forecast, 35 previous.
•Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2): -2, -1 previous.
•Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Index (Q2): 1, -1 forecast, 2 previous.
•Japan Tankan Small Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2): 9, 9 previous.
•Japan Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2): 15, 16 previous.
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 50.1, 50.4 forecast, 49.4 previous.
•China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jun): 50.4, 49.2 forecast, 48.3 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:50 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 47.8 forecast, 49.8 previous
•07:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 49.0 forecast, 48.3 previous
•07:55 Germany Unemployment Change (Jun): 18K forecast, 34K previous
•07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate (Jun): 6.4% forecast, 6.3% previous
•07:55 Germany Unemployment (Jun): 2.963M previous
•08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 49.4 forecast, 49.4 previous
•07:55 Germany Unemployment n.s.a. (Jun): 2.919M previous
•09:00 Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.0% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.0%, 1.9% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.0% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI, n.s.a. (Jun): 128.71 previous
•09:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jun): 2.4% previous
•09:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jun): 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:40 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•08:40 ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro held firm against on Tuesday as U.S. dollar edged lower on uncertainty over the Senate's push to pass President Donald Trump's fiscal and spending plan weighed on sentiment. Investors are grappling with uncertainty over the U.S. Senate's efforts to pass Trump's tax-cut and spending bill, which faces internal party divisions over its projected $3.3 trillion addition to the national debt. The fiscal concerns have dampened sentiment and prompted some investors to diversify. Investors have also started wagering on a quicker pace of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data this week, headlined by Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report. The euro gained 0.01% to $1.1782.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1807(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1852(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1711(June 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1621(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound firmed on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar remained under pressure as markets awaited a vote over U.S. President Donald Trump's landmark tax and spending legislation. Senate Republicans pressed ahead early Tuesday to pass Trump’s massive tax and spending bill, despite internal party disagreements over its $3.3 trillion impact on the national debt. The chamber was locked in a marathon “vote-a-rama” session, with numerous amendments debated under a special process to bypass the usual 60-vote requirement. The session, which began Monday and stretched beyond 18 hours, was delayed as lawmakers reviewed whether amendments met strict budgetary rules .Sterling added 0.18% to $1.3756, hovering close to Thursday's peak of $1.3770, unseen since October 2021. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3770(June 26th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as U.S. fiscal concerns and ongoing trade deal uncertainty weighed on market sentiment. Investors face uncertainty over the U.S. Senate's push to pass Trump's tax-cut and spending bill, amid party divisions over its projected $3.3 trillion debt impact.Trump’s looming tariff deadline is driving investor focus on trade diplomacy, although negotiations have yielded limited results. On the economic front, growth in Australia’s manufacturing sector cooled in June, as the PMI ticked down to 50.6 from 51.0, S&P Global reported. Looking ahead ,Australian retail sales data is due Wednesday, forecasts point to a 0.4% increase, but bank analysts see room for a stronger number. Immediate resistance can be seen at 00.6643(Nov 4th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6696(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6557(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6517(SMA 9).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Tuesday as dollar was dragged down by worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's spending bill. Investors remain cautious as the U.S. Senate struggles to pass Trump’s tax and spending bill, which is facing pushback over its projected $3.3 trillion debt impact. The Congressional Budget Office on Sunday estimated the Senate’s version of the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the $36.2 trillion U.S. debt, $800 billion more than the House-passed version. Powell’s speech at the ECB’s Sintra forum will be closely scrutinized, as markets anticipate 67bps of Fed cuts this year. Meanwhile, A private survey showed Tuesday that Japan's manufacturing activity expanded in June for the first time in 13 months. Japan’s final au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.1 in June, up from 49.4 in May. The U.S. currency slumped 0.5% to 143.90 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.12 (Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.74(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.04(Lower BB)a break below could take the pair towards 142.35(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian markets inched higher as traders awaited the outcome of Trump’s fiscal proposal.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.52% , China A50 was up 0.25%,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.43%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices advanced Tuesday, benefiting from trade anxiety, a sliding dollar, and renewed bets on Fed policy easing.
Spot gold gained 0.7% to $3,325.79 per ounce by 0621 GMT, while U.S. gold futures added 0.9% to $3,337.30.
Oil held steady on Tuesday as the market assessed the likelihood of OPEC+ agreeing to raise output at its next meeting.
Brent crude rose 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $66.84 a barrel by 0635 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude inched up 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $65.20 a barrel.