Posted at 30 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.957%, 1.951% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.949%, 1.932% previous
• US Chicago PMI (Jun) 40.4, 42.7forecast, 40.5 previous
• US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jun) -12.7, -15.3 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.250% 4.195% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.150% 4.120% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 22:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q2) 19% previous
• 22:00 New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q2) 90.5% previous
• 22:45 New Zealand Building Consents (MoM) (May) -15.6% previous
•23:00 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 51.0 forecast, 51.0 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q2) -10.0% previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2) 10 forecast, 12 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2) 29 forecast, 28 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2) 34 forecast ,35 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2) -1 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Index (Q2) -1 forecast, 2 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Small Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2) 9 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2) 16 previous
•00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.4 forecast, 49.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as traders focused on U.S. trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. Canada withdrew its digital services tax on U.S. tech firms just before implementation, while the UK confirmed its trade deal cutting U.S. tariffs on cars and aircraft parts had taken effect. Attention is now turning to the July 9 deadline for countries to finalize trade agreements with Washington. On the data front, German inflation eased in June, according to preliminary figures, while Italy’s EU-harmonised CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month. Looking ahead, investors will watch a series of U.S. labor market releases this week, culminating in Thursday’s early release of the key nonfarm payrolls report due to the Independence Day holiday. The euro up 0.55% at $1.1783 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1811(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1725(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1631(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Monday despite strong UK GDP data, as markets focused on progress in U.S. trade talks ahead of the looming July tariff deadline. Talks with Canada are set to resume after a brief pause, while investors are also monitoring Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill under Senate review. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill could add $3.3 trillion to U.S. debt over the next decade. On the data front, Britain’s economy grew 0.7% in Q1 2025, its fastest pace in a year, driven by a surge in home buying and manufacturing ahead of U.S. import tariffs, according to the ONS. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.41% to 96.80, with the sterling was down 0.06% at $1.3722. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3770(June 26th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday, recovering losses from a volatile pre-weekend session as trade talks between the two countries resumed. The rebound followed Ottawa’s decision to scrap its planned digital services tax on U.S. tech firms, a move that prompted Washington to reopen negotiations. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed that discussions would restart immediately. The reversal came after President Trump abruptly halted talks on Friday in response to Canada’s proposed levy.Meanwhile, oil prices—crucial to Canada’s export economy—fell 0.8% to $65.00 per barrel, as investors assessed easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and anticipated a possible OPEC+ production hike in August.The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3635 per U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3708(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3772 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3599(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3545(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Monday as investors kept a close watch on U.S. trade talks ahead of the looming July tariff deadline. The July 9 deadline still holds for other countries, although officials have suggested most deals could be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday.On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advised that the U.S. could move back to the tariff levels on April 2, when Trump announced a wide array of steep duties against countries around the globe, and that the decision for any extension to negotiations would be up to Trump . Investors were also monitoring the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, which Republicans will try to pass on Monday.The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over a decade, testing foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.74 (Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.68(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.60(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.18(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed lower on Monday, wrapping up June with monthly losses as investors watched for progress on U.S. trade talks ahead of the July tariff deadline.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.33 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at record highs on Monday, finishing their best quarter in over a year amid optimism over trade deals and potential rate cuts that eased investor uncertainty.
Dow Jones traded up at 0.63% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.52% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.48% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose slightly on Monday as investors awaited upcoming economic data for insight into the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,293.55 per ounce as of 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) after reaching its lowest point since May 29 earlier in the session. The yellow metal was up for the second straight quarter, rising 5.5%.
Oil prices edged lower on Monday as markets assessed easing Middle East tensions and the potential for an OPEC+ output hike in August.
Brent futures settled down 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.61 a barrel and expired on Monday. The more active September contract ended at $66.74.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 41 cents, or 0.6%, at $65.11 a barrel.