Posted at 30 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1): 3.9%, 5.9% forecast, -1.9% previous
• UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q1): 6.1%, 8.1% forecast, 1.8% previous
• UK Current Account (Q1): -23.5B, -19.7B forecast, -21.0B previous
• UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.1% previous
• UK GDP (YoY) (Q1): 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.5% previous
•German Import Price Index (MoM) (May): -0.7%, -0.3% forecast, -1.7% previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (May): -1.1%, -0.8% forecast, -0.4% previous
•German Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 1.6%, 3.3% forecast, 4.6% previous
•German Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -1.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
•Swiss Official Reserves Assets (May): 806.1B, 806.1B previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.3%, 2.2% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, -0.1% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jun): -0.1%, 0.1% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jun): 1.8%, 2.1% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.0% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.2%, 2.2% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.3%, 2.3% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.1%, 0.0% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jun): 1.8%, 2.0% previous
•German North Rhine Westphalia CPI (MoM) (Jun): -0.1%, 0.2% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.4%, 2.3% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.0% previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (May): 16,919.7B, 16,901.4B previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (May): 3.9%, 4.0% forecast, 3.7% previous
•EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (May): 2.5%, 2.4% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (May): 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 1.9% previous
•UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK Mortgage Approvals (May): 63.03K, 61.00K forecast, 60.66K previous
•UK Mortgage Lending (May): 2.05B, 2.50B forecast, -0.78B previous
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Jun): 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Jun): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.932% previous
•13:00 French French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.951% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.932% previous
•13:45 US Chicago PMI (Jun) 42.7 forecast, 40.5 previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jun) -15.3 previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Apr) -23.88B previous
•15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.195% previous
•15:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 4.120% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•17:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors kept a close eye on U.S. trade negotiations ahead of the looming July tariff deadline. Market sentiment improved last week amid easing U.S.-China tensions, with renewed talks between the U.S. and Canada also raising hopes. Focus now shifts to the ECB conference in Sintra, upcoming euro zone inflation data, and Thursday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Canada announced on Sunday that it had withdrawn its digital services tax in an effort to move trade negotiations forward, yielding to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. The talks aim to secure a deal by July 21, extending Trump’s original July 9 deadline for imposing “reciprocal” tariffs. Officials now indicate that most agreements could be finalized by the September 1 Labor Day holiday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1755(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1806(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1661(June 26th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1537(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Monday edged lower on Monday despite upbeat UK GDP data, as investors looked ahead to progress in U.S. trade talks with the July tariff deadline approaching.Investors are also watching for progress on U.S. trade deals, with a July tariff deadline approaching, as talks with Canada are set to resume following a brief pause. Markets are keeping are also closely watched on Trump’s expansive tax and spending package, currently under Senate review, which the Congressional Budget Office warns could raise U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. On the data front, Britain’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in Q1 2025, driven by a rush in home purchases and accelerated manufacturing ahead of U.S. tariff hikes.Britain’s economy grew 0.7% in Q1 2025, matching the preliminary estimate and marking the fastest pace since Q1 2024, the ONS reported. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3770(June 26th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady on Monday as attention turned to upcoming U.S. jobs data, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Investors are awaiting the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday, both seen as key to gauging whether a further economic slowdown could justify rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in 66 basis points of Fed cuts by year-end, starting in September. On the trade front, Canada withdrew its digital services tax targeting U.S. tech firms late Sunday just hours before implementation in a move to revive stalled trade talks with the U.S. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6565(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6582(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Monday as market's focus shifted to a slew of U.S. jobs data due later this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. Investors awaited Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Thursday’s non-farm payrolls, both seen as key indicators for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook .On the data front, Japan's industrial sector showed signs of strain in May, with factory output rising just 0.5% sharply missing expectations of a 3.5% gainas fresh U.S. tariffs added pressure to an already fragile economic recovery. The subdued performance, reported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on Monday, underscores mounting external risks and persistent weakness in domestic demand. The U.S. currency slumped 0.5% to 143.90 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.74 (Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.68(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.60(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.18(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks dipped in volatile trading on Monday but remained on track for quarterly gains, as investors watched for progress in U.S. trade talks ahead of the looming July tariff deadline.
At GMT (12:23) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was downby 0.09 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Monday as investor focus turning to upcoming U.S. jobs data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s rate cut outlook.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,287.29 per ounce by 0959 GMT, after briefly touching its lowest level since May 29. The metal has gained 5.3% so far this quarter.
Oil prices were steady on Monday as easing Middle East tensions offset pressure from potential OPEC+ output increases in August and lingering uncertainty over global demand.
Brent crude futures edged down by 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.55 a barrel at 1119 GMT, ahead of the August contract's expiry later on Monday. The more active September contract was down 14 cents at $66.61.