Posted at 27 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Consumer Spending (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
• French CPI (YoY) (Jun): 0.9%, 0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
• French CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• French HICP (YoY) (Jun): 0.8%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
• French HICP (MoM) (Jun): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
• French PPI (MoM) (May): -0.8%, -4.2% previous
• Spanish Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.2%, 2.2% previous
• Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.2%, 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jun): 0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
• Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jun): 2.2%, 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
• Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jun): 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.0% previous
• Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 4.8%, 4.1% previous
• Italian Business Confidence (Jun): 87.3, 87.0 forecast, 86.6 previous
• Italian Consumer Confidence (Jun): 96.1, 97.0 forecast, 96.5 previous
• Portuguese Business Confidence (Jun): 2.6, 2.4 previous
• Portuguese Consumer Confidence (Jun): -17.6, -18.2 previous
• Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Apr): 1.1%, -1.2% previous
• Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Apr): 1.5%, -1.6% previous
• EU Business and Consumer Survey (Jun): 94.0, 95.1 forecast, 94.8 previous
• EU Business Climate (Jun): -0.78, -0.57 previous
• EU Consumer Confidence (Jun): -15.3, -15.3 forecast, -15.1 previous
• EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jun): 21.2, , 23.6 previous
• EU Selling Price Expectations (Jun): 5.6, , 7.7 previous
• EU Services Sentiment (Jun): 2.9, 1.6 forecast, 1.8 previous
• EU Industrial Sentiment (Jun): -12.0, -9.9 forecast, -10.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May): 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (May): 2.3% forecast, 2.1% previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (May): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (May): 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
•12:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (May): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (May): 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Dallas Fed PCE (May): 2.7% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun): 5.1% forecast, 6.6% previous
•14:00 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun): 4.1% forecast, 4.2% previous
•14:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jun): 58.4 forecast, 47.9 previous
•14:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun): 60.5 forecast, 52.2 previous
•14:00 Michigan Current Conditions (Jun): 63.7 forecast, 58.9 previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 3.4% previous
• 17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 438 previous
• 17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 554 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:15 Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held firm against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the greenback weakened amid growing market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. Markets remain intensely focused on U.S. monetary policy, with traders increasingly factoring in political risk amid speculation that President Donald Trump could move early to nominate a new, more dovish Federal Reserve chair. Such a move is widely seen as an attempt to exert greater influence over the central bank's policy direction potentially undermining the independence of the Fed and reinforcing expectations of an accommodative shift. As a result, traders have sharply increased their bets on rate cuts, now pricing in 64 basis points (bps) of easing for 2025, up from 46 bps expected just last Friday. The shift reflects a growing belief that the Fed may be forced to act more decisively to support growth under heightened political scrutiny. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1722(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1786(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1593(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1537(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound hovered near a four-year high on Friday as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data and watched for developments on U.S. tariff negotiations. Sterling has firmed against dollars this week amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks, and growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.All eyes are on the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data, a key indicator that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.The data will be especially critical as markets remain finely balanced between expectations of near-term rate cuts and a more prolonged pause.A softer-than-expected reading could reinforce the case for easing, while any upside surprise might prompt a reassessment of dovish Fed bets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3770(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near a multi-month high on Friday as investors closely monitored trade developments ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. With time running short, nations are under increasing pressure to finalize agreements and avoid punitive trade measures.Looking ahead, attention is turning to Australia’s May retail sales data, due next week. The figures are expected to shed light on the strength of household consumption — a key driver of the Australian economy. A weak print could reinforce concerns over sluggish consumer spending and strengthen the case for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in July.Markets will be watching the release closely, as it may prove pivotal in shaping expectations for the RBA’s next policy move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6565(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6582(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday but gains were limited as investors weighed the prospects of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts and awaited clarity on potential trade agreements ahead of President Trump’s looming tariff deadline. With the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding, geopolitical tensions have receded from the spotlight, allowing U.S. monetary policy to take center stage in market focus. Speculation around deeper Fed cuts intensified following reports that Trump may act early to appoint a central bank chief more aligned with his policy stance, potentially sidelining current Chair Jerome Powell. On the data front, Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% in June, undershooting the 3.3% forecast, as temporary utility bill cuts helped ease price pressures. Nonetheless, inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, sustaining expectations for further rate hikes in Japan. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.24 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.19(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks climbed on Friday, closing the week on a positive note after navigating recent headwinds from Middle East tensions and trade policy uncertainty.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.96 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.52 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell more than 1% to its lowest level in nearly a month on Friday due to easing geopolitical and trade tensions and as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the future trajectory of interest rates.
Spot gold lost 1.4% to $3,282.68 per ounce by 1055 GMT, its lowest since late May. Prices have fallen by over 2% this week and more than $200 from a record high scaled in April.
Oil prices rose on Friday but were set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.
Brent crude futures were up 51 cents, or 0.75%, to $68.24 a barrel at 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 51 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to $65.75.