Posted at 27 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• China Chinese Industrial profit YTD (May) -1.1%, 1.4% previous
•Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jun): 1.8%, 2.1% previous
•Japan Jobs/Applications Ratio (May): 1.24, 1.26 forecast, 1.26 previous
•Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): 3.1%, 3.3% forecast, 3.6% previous
•Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jun): 3.1%, 3.4% previous
•Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Jun): -0.4%, 0.1% previous
•Japan Unemployment Rate (May): 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (May): -0.2%, 0.7% previous
•Japan Large Scale Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 2.0%, 3.0% previous
•Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 2.2%, 2.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 Italy Business Confidence (Jun): 87.0 forecast, 86.5 previous
• 08:00 Italy Consumer Confidence (Jun): 97.0 forecast, 96.5 previous
• 08:30 Portugal Business Confidence (Jun): 2.3 previous
• 08:30 Portugal Consumer Confidence (Jun): -18.20 previous
•09:00 Italy Industrial Sales (YoY) (Apr): -1.10% previous
• 09:00 Italy Industrial Sales (MoM) (Apr): -1.60% previous
• 09:00 Eurozone Business and Consumer Survey (Jun): 95.1 forecast, 94.8 previous
• 09:00 Eurozone Business Climate (Jun): -0.55 previous
• 09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jun): -15.3 forecast, -15.1 previous
• 09:00 Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jun): 23.6 previous
• 09:00 Eurozone Selling Price Expectations (Jun): 7.9 previous
• 09:00 Eurozone Services Sentiment (Jun): 1.6 forecast, 1.5 previous
• 09:00 Eurozone Industrial Sentiment (Jun): -9.9 forecast, -10.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held firm against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the greenback weakened amid growing market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. The dollar was largely subdued as markets priced in deeper U.S. rate cuts, with speculation that Trump could name a more dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding to expectations of policy easing.Investors are awaiting the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure data at 1230 GMT for further insight into the Federal Reserve's policy path, with analysts forecasting a 0.1% monthly increase and a 2.6% annual rise.Markets are currently pricing in a 63-basis-point rate cut this year, starting September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1722(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1786(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1593(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1537(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Friday as U.S. dollar weakened on concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations for early rate cuts. Much of the focus for markets over the past two sessions has been on the prospect of an early change of guard at the Fed, after the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's replacement by September or October. That knocked an already battered dollar even lower as traders fretted about an erosion of Fed independence and as they moved to price in more U.S. rate cuts this year. The dollar languished near a 3-1/2-year low on Friday and was headed for a 1.4% weekly loss, its largest decline in over a month. For the year, the greenback is already down more than 10%.Sterling last bought $1.3725. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3770(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian hovered near multi month high on Friday as investors looked ahead to trade developments tied to Trump’s looming tariff deadline. Investors are keeping a close eye on trade deal developments ahead of the looming July 9 tariff deadline, as nations rush to reach consensus under growing time pressure.On the data front, spotlight turns to Australia’s May retail sales data due next week, which may underscore weakness in consumer spending and bolster expectations for a July rate cut.The figures are expected to offer a fresh reading on household consumption—a key engine of the Australian economy and could prove pivotal in shaping expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6565(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6582(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded in narrow on Friday as investors assessed the likelihood of additional U.S. rate cuts and awaited clarity on trade deals ahead of Trump’s looming tariff deadline.The de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has pushed geopolitical risks to the background, allowing U.S. monetary policy to take center stage in market discussions this week.Markets are increasingly pricing in rate cuts amid reports that Trump may move early to appoint a Fed chair more aligned with his views, potentially sidelining Powell. On the data front, Tokyo’s core CPI rose 3.1% in June, below the 3.3% forecast, as temporary utility bill cuts eased price pressures. Despite the slowdown, inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, keeping expectations for further rate hikes alive. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.24 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.19(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares dipped on Friday as investor focus shifted away from geopolitical and trade risks.
South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.77% , China A50 was down 1.30%,Hang Seng was down by 0.22%.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Friday and was on track for a second consecutive weekly loss, as easing geopolitical tensions from the Israel-Iran ceasefire and progress in U.S.-China trade talks reduced safe-haven demand.
Spot gold slipped 1.2% to $3,288.55 per ounce as of 0643 GMT. Bullion has lost 2.3% this week.U.S. gold futures fell 1.4% to $3,300.40.
Oil was on course for its steepest weekly decline since March 2023, with fading concerns over Middle East supply risks leading to a reversal of earlier risk-driven gains.
Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.53%, to $68.09 a barrel by 0637 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 33 cents, or 0.51%, to $65.57. That put both contracts on course for a weekly fall of about 12%.