Posted at 26 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,974K,1,950K forecast,1,937K previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q1): 3.50%, 3.40% forecast, 2.60% previous
• US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1): -3.3%, -3.6% forecast, -0.4% previous
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May): 16.4%, 8.6% forecast, -6.6% previous
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (May): 15.5%, -7.7% previous
• US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (May): 0.5%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q1): -0.5%, -0.2% forecast, 2.4% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 2.3% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q1): -3.1%, -2.9% forecast, 3.3% previous
• US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (May): 1.7%, -1.4% previous
• US Goods Trade Balance (May): -96.59B, -86.30B forecast, -86.97B previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 236K, 244K forecast, 246K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 245.00K, 245.75K previous
• US PCE Prices (Q1): 3.7%, 3.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q1): 0.5%, 1.2% forecast, 4.0% previous
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May): 0.2%, no forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (May): -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Apr): 4.43%, 4.06% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May): -0.4%, -2.3% previous
•US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May): 1.8%, 0.2% forecast, -6.3% previous
•US Pending Home Sales Index (May): 72.6, 71.3 previous
•US Natural Gas Storage: 96B, 88B forecast, 95B previous
•US KC Fed Composite Index (Jun): -2 , -3 previous
•US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun): 5, -10 previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.000%, 4.060% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.390%, 4.470% previous
•US 7-Year Note Auction: 4.022%, 4.194% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•23:30 Japan CPI (YoY) (Jun): 2.1% previous
•23:30 Japan Jobs/Applications Ratio (May): 1.26 forecast, 1.26 previous
•23:30 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): 3.3% forecast, 3.6% previous
•23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jun): 3.4% previous
•23:30 Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Jun): 0.1% previous
•23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate (May): 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (May): 0.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Large Scale Retail Sales (YoY) (May): forecast 3.0% previous
•23:30 Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 2.4% forecast, 3.3% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro climbed on Thursday as greenback weakened as traders priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than previously expected . Fed Chair Jerome Powell was interpreted as being more dovish this week in testimony to U.S. Congress. He repeated expectations that inflation should rise this summer, but said that if price pressure remains contained "we will get to a place where we cut ratessooner than later. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 23% odds of a July cut, up from 13% a week ago, while a cut by September has a 93% probability, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. In total, traders see 66 basis points of cuts by year-end, indicating a potential third 25-basis point reduction, up from 46 basis points on Friday. The euro was last up 0.51% at $1.1719 and reached $1.1744 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1722(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1786(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1593(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1537(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound climbed on Thursday as dollar dropped following spate of economic data looked to strengthen the argument for the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting borrowing prices this year. A slew of economic statistics revealed first quarter GDP declined more than previously reported on lower than anticipated consumer spending, with continued jobless claims reached multi-year highs, signaling possible cracks forming in the labor market On the other hand, new orders for durable goods and pending house sales produced substantial surprises to the positive. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day congressional hearing, during which he restated the central bank's wait-and-see policy position with regard to rate decreases and economic tariff consequences. Financial markets are already pricing in roughly a 21% possibility of a 25 basis point drop the Fed Funds target rate at the July Fed meeting, and more than a 75% probability that this year's first rate cut would happen in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3721(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3536(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian currency surged to a nine-day high versus its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the greenback endured broad-based sell and ahead of domestic GDP data that might help influence expectations for greater easing from the Bank of Canada. Investors also examined U.S. gross domestic product data that showed the economy declining at a downwardly revised annualized pace of 0.5% in the first quarter. Canada’s GDP report for April, published on Friday, is likely to show little change in the level of activity from March. Preliminary statistics on Thursday revealed that wholesale trade decreased 0.4% on a monthly basis in May, adding to previous indicators of a downturn in the Canadian economy. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.5% higher at $65.24 a barrel. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.7% higher at 1.3625 per U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3753(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3828 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3685(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3661(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar eased against the Japanese yen on Thursday as investors reacted to important U.S. economic data A slew of economic data showed first quarter US GDP shrunk more than previously reported on lower than anticipated consumer spending, while continued jobless claims reached multi-year highs, signaling possible cracks forming in the labor market. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin warned against taking alternatives off the table amid prolonged economic uncertainty, but noted that he did not anticipate tariffs to be "as inflationary as a lot of people worry about."A muted tariff impact might assist bolster the case for a rate drop this autumn, according to San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday she's leaning toward a rate drop later this year given an unclear economic forecast. The dollar fell 0.72% to 144.2 Japanese yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.24 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.19(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks fluctuated on Thursday and ended the session mostly flat, as investors digested mixed signals on the future path of U.S. interest rates.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.01percent.
Wall Street extended gains on Thursday as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held firm and a series of economic data bolstered expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.94% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.80% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.97% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as investors awaited upcoming U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate path.
Spot gold was flat at $3,333 per ounce, as of 0227 p.m. ET (1827 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% higher at $3,348.
Oil prices ticked higher Thursday on falling U.S. inventories and a weaker dollar, though caution over the Iran-Israel ceasefire limited gains.
Brent crude futures were up 32 cents, or 0.47%, to $68 a barrel at 2:01 p.m. EDT (1801 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 55 cents, or 0.85%, to $65.47 a barrel.