Posted at 26 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden Business Confidence (Jun) 94.80 ,98.90 previous
• Sweden Consumer Confidence (Jun) 84.6, 83.6 previous
• Sweden Manufacturing Confidence (Jun) 99.3 , 100.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity (May): -0.25 previous
• 12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,950K forecast, 1,945K previous
• 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q1): 3.40% forecast, 2.60% previous
• 12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1): -3.6% forecast, -0.4% previous
• 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May): 8.6% forecast, -6.3% previous
• 12:30 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (May): -7.5% previous
• 12:30 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (May): 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1): -0.2% forecast, 2.4% previous
• 12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 3.7% forecast, 2.3% previous
• 12:30 US GDP Sales (Q1): -2.9% forecast, 3.3% previous
• 12:30 US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (May): -1.5% previous
• 12:30 US Goods Trade Balance (May): -86.30B forecast, -86.97B previous
• 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 244K forecast, 245K previous
• 12:30 US PCE Prices (Q1): 3.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
• 12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q1): 1.2% forecast, 4.0% previous
• 12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May): 0.3% previous
• 12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (May): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Apr): 4.31% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May): -2.3% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May): 0.2% forecast, -6.3% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales Index (May): 71.3 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage: 88B forecast, 95B previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Jun): -3 previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun): -10 previous
• 15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.060% previous
• 15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.470% previous
• 16:00 US 7-Year Note Auction: 4.194% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:45 FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
• 12:45 FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•17:15 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•18:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro climbed against the US dollar on Thursday as greenback weakened after rumors surfaced that President Donald Trump is contemplating choosing a replacement to Fed Chair Jerome Powell far before his term ends in May next year. Recent mixed economic data in the United States has fueled anticipation that interest rate cut is imminent. However, Trump's criticism of the Fed for not easing swiftly enough has escalated, with Powell regularly under fire. The notion of naming a new Fed chair early may throw a lengthy shadow over Powell's leadership, jeopardizing the central bank's reputation and independence. The U.S. dollar index, which monitors the greenback versus six global counterparts, has fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, widening its year-to-date losses .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1722(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1786(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1593(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1537(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound crept higher against the US dollar on Thursday, buoyed by dollar weakness as President Trump stepped up his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and allegedly mulled replacing him ahead of schedule. The rising political pressure on the Fed exacerbated market uncertainty, lowering the dollar.In contrast, UK economic statistics revealed more indications of labor market softening, including sluggish pay growth and a decline in job postings, particularly in graduate positions. In his speech on Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recognized the slowing trend and maintained the likelihood of rate decreases. Traders are already putting in a 64% possibility of a BoE rate drop in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3721(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3536(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar on Thursday, aided by improved risk sentiment as lowering Middle Eastern tensions prompted investors to move into higher-yielding assets. A truce between Israel and Iran this week helped to calm global markets by alleviating concerns about oil supply disruptions. Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may begin decreasing interest rates as early as July have boosted the Australian dollar's momentum. Market pricing currently assumes an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate drop next month. This comes amid growing anticipation that the RBA may need to move more firmly to stimulate economic growth and keep inflation within its target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6540(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as worries about the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential of political influence grew. The sell-off intensified as rumors surfaced that President Trump is contemplating appointing a successor for Fed Chair Jerome Powell as early as September or October, an unprecedented step regarded as an attempt to undermine Powell's authority. Following a January rate hike to 0.5%, the Bank of Japan has expressed willingness to raise rates further. However, a summary of opinions from its June policy meeting, released Wednesday, showed policymakers favoring a wait-and-see approach for now, citing concerns about the possible effects of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economic outlook. Meanwhile, a truce between Israel and Iran looked to be holding, providing respite to global markets and allaying concerns about possible interruptions to crucial oil supply lines in the Middle East. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.24 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.19(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares moved higher on Thursday, supported by signs that the Israel-Iran ceasefire was holding and optimism that EU leaders were preparing to finalize their position for upcoming trade talks with the U.S. ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar amid growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, while investors turned their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data for signals on the future path of interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,339.38 per ounce, as of 1133 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.3% to $3,352.30.
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as investors remained wary about the Iran-Israel truce and switched their focus to market fundamentals after a stock dip in the United States.
Brent crude futures rose 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.02 a barrel by 1055 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.27 a barrel.