Posted at 26 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 615.5B , 1,567.3B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -524.3B ,473.3B previous
• Japan 2-Year JGB Auction 0.729%, 0.752% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:00 Sweden Business Confidence (Jun) 98.90 previous
•07:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (Jun) 83.1 previous
•07:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence (Jun) 100.1 previous
•10:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun) -24 forecast -27 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•08:30 UK BoE Breeden Speaks
•09:45 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•10:00 EU Leaders Summit
•11:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•11:00 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held firm against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as the greenback weakened amid growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s future independence.A report from the Wall Street Journal said Trump has toyed with the idea of naming Fed Chair Jerome Powell's replacement as early as September, which could undermine Powell's authority for the remainder of his term to next May. Trump has repeatedly chastised Powell for not cutting interest rates and said he was terrible in the latest attack on Wednesday, eroding investor faith in the U.S. central bank's independence in setting policy. NATO leaders on Wednesday backed the big increase in defence spending that U.S. President Donald Trump had demanded, and restated their commitment to defend each other from attack after a brief summit in the Netherlands. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1722(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1786(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1593(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1537(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, propelled by broad dollar weakness following renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump. Reports suggested Trump is contemplating replacing Powell ahead of schedule, further unsettling markets. On Wednesday, Trump labeled Powell "terrible" for not aggressively reducing rates, even as Powell cautioned the Senate that the President’s tariff plans posed inflation risks and warranted a cautious policy approach. In response, markets raised the probability of a July rate cut to 25%, up from 12% a week ago, and are now pricing in 64 basis points of easing by year-end—sharply higher than the 46 bps expected last Friday. Sterling rose 0.3% to $1.3723, its highest since January 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3721(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3613(June 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3536(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian currency gained versus greenback on Thursday as lessening tensions in the Middle East improved risk appetite, pushing investors to migrate into higher-yielding assets like the Australian dollar. Global markets received respite this week when a truce between Israel and Iran alleviated worries of possible disruptions to the global oil supply. Markets have become more optimistic that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would begin easing monetary policy as early as next month, with current pricing implying an 80% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate decrease in July. Expectations that the RBA will need to intervene more forcefully to promote GDP and bring inflation back within its target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6540(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Thursday amid rising fears over the Federal Reserve’s independence and potential political interference. The decline accelerated after a media report revealed that President Trump is considering announcing a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell by September or October an unprecedented move seen as an attempt to weaken Powell’s authority. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Thursday, providing a sense of relief to global markets. The de-escalation in tensions eased concerns over potential disruptions to vital oil supply routes in the Middle East. Attention is now turning to Trump’s looming July 9 deadline for imposing new tariffs on key trading partners, as well as his ongoing efforts to pressure the Fed into aggressive rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.24 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.19(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Thursday as the prospect of an early appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Donald Trump stoked concerns over the independence and credibility of the U.S. central bank.
South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.92% , China A50 was down 0.30%,Hang Seng was down by 0.49%.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Thursday, bolstered by a softer U.S. dollar and rising uncertainty following reports that President Trump may consider replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as soon as September or October.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,336.02 per ounce, as of 0640 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $3,349.30.
Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, building on the previous session’s gains after a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories pointed to strong demand while investors remained cautious about the Iran-Israel ceasefire and stability in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $68.21 a barrel by 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 56 cents, or 0.9%, to $65.48 a barrel.