Posted at 25 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q1) 2.8%,2.8% forecast,3.3% previous
• Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6%, 0.6%forecast,0.7% previous
• Spanish PPI (YoY) (May) 1.9%, 1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US New Home Sales (May): 694K forecast, 743K previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (May) 10.9% previous
•14:00 US Crude Oil Inventories: -1.200M forecast, -11.473M previous
•14:00 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.364M previous
•14:00 US Crude Oil Imports -1.747M previous
•14:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.995M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -0.500M forecast, 0.209M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:00 Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 14:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors assessed the developments around a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The truce, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, appeared to be holding, with both nations signaling a pause in hostilities after days of aerial conflict, bringing a measure of calm to global markets. With the shaky truce so far holding, investors turned their focus back to the U.S. economy and monetary policy, after a series of U.S. macroeconomic data overnight showed possibly weaker than expected growth in the world's largest oil consumer, bolstering expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Investors are now awaiting U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate on Wednesday to gauge when the central bank could cut rates next. The focus was also on the Commerce Department's final take on first-quarter GDP due on Thursday, as well as Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures report that will help determine the economic effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs that have unnerved global markets this year .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1632(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1683(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1471(20 SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1431(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound held steady against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, supported by improved risk sentiment following a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The truce, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, brought temporary relief to markets despite lingering tensions, with Israel warning of a potential response to recent Iranian missile strikes.Investors also digested cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who signaled a patient approach to rate cuts. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted further signs of a softening UK labour market and reiterated expectations of continued rate declines. Money markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a BoE rate cut in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3641(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3674(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3523(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3443(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady on Wednesday, supported by improved risk sentiment stemming from the Israel-Iran ceasefire, which helped offset the impact of soft domestic inflation data. The truce, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, continued to hold as both nations declared victory after 12 days of conflict. Australia’s monthly CPI dropped 0.4% in May, bringing annual inflation down to 2.1%, undershooting the 2.3% forecast. Core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, also declined sharply to 2.4% its lowest since late 2021 and below the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range. The subdued inflation print has reinforced market expectations that the RBA could ease rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming July 8 meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6540(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6413(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday, supported by improving risk sentiment as optimism over the Israel-Iran ceasefire reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets. While the fragile truce has mostly held, tensions remain elevated, with Israel warning of a forceful response to Iranian missile strikes that followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire.With a subdued domestic economic calendar, investor focus remained firmly on geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Meanwhile, fresh data out of Japan showed the service-sector inflation gauge rose to 3.3% in May, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan may pursue further interest rate hikes amid persistent price pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.18 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.40 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.81(Lower BB)a break below could take the pair towards 140.79(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Wednesday as investors assessed the stability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.46 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.47 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, supported by hopes the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold and signs of solid U.S. demand.
Brent crude futures were up 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $67.60 a barrel at 1200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $64.80
Gold held steady on Wednesday after Tuesday’s drop, as a truce between Israel and Iran boosted risk appetite, with focus now turning to upcoming U.S. economic data.
Spot gold was little changed at $3,325.56 per ounce at 1045 GMT. On Tuesday, prices hit their lowest in over two weeks.