Posted at 23 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 47.8, 49.8 forecast, 49.8 previous
•EU HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 47.8, 49.8 forecast, 49.8 previous
•EU HCOB France Composite PMI (Jun): 48.5, 49.3 forecast, 49.3 previous
•EU HCOB France Services PMI (Jun): 48.7, 49.2 forecast, 48.9 previous
•EU HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Jun): 50.4, 49.0 forecast, 48.5 previous
•EU HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 49.0, 48.9 forecast, 48.3 previous
•EU HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jun): 49.4, 47.8 forecast, 47.1 previous
•EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 49.4, 49.6 forecast, 49.4 previous
•EU HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jun): 50.2, 50.5 forecast, 50.2 previous
•EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jun): 50.0, 50.0 forecast, 49.7 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): 50.7, 50.5 forecast, 50.3 previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 47.7, 46.9 forecast, 46.4 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): 51.3, 51.2 forecast, 50.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 1.940% previous
•13:30 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 1.948% previous
•13:30 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 1.953% previous
•14:00 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 51.1 forecast, 52.0 previous
•14:00 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): 53.0 previous
•14:00 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): 52.9 forecast, 53.7 previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales (May): 3.96M forecast, 4.00M previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May): -1.3%forecast, -0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Monday as rising Middle East tensions weighed on risk sentiment and drove safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar. The decline followed U.S. precision strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites, including the use of 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs near Fordow. In response, Iran vowed to defend itself, while anti-war protests broke out in several U.S. cities. Further rattling markets, Iran’s parliament approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz—a vital oil transit route—raising fears of global supply disruptions and intensifying investor caution. On the data front, The euro zone economy stagnated for a second straight month in June, as modest gains in services were offset by continued weakness in manufacturing. HCOB's flash composite PMI held steady at 50.2, unchanged from May. Separate data showed Business activity in Germany returned to growth in June. The HCOB German flash composite PMI output index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.4 in June from 48.5 in May, beating a forecast of analysts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1582(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1637(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1463(20 SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1343(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined on Monday as dollar was supported by safe-haven flows as investors assessed the risk of an Iranian response to U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites. U.S. forces launched targeted strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, intensifying regional tensions and fueling concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday, his office said. Starmer also urged Iran to return to the negotiating table.Market focus is firmly on the price of oil, which earlier spiked as much as 5.7% and was last up 0.5%.Flash PMI data released Monday indicated a modest expansion in UK business activity for June. However, the figures had little immediate impact on the British pound as markets remained focused geopolitical developments. The S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.7 from 50.3 in May edging further above the 50.0 growth threshold. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3463(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3589(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3349(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3156(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hit one month low against the U.S. dollar on Monday as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted demand for safe-haven dollar. The U.S. targeted key Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions. The strikes have raised alarm across the international community, fueling fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East and potential disruptions to global energy markets. The commodity-sensitive currencies often track global risk sentiment and tend to take a hit when equity markets slide. Looking ahead, Australia will publish the monthly inflation reading for May on Wednesday. Expectations are centered on an annual rise of 2.3%, slowing from a gain of 2.4% in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6441(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6351 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6260(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar surged to a five-month high against the Japanese yen on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid intensifying Middle East tensions. Iran and Israel exchanged air and missile strikes, heightening global concern over Tehran's potential retaliation following U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.Japan urged de-escalation, while South Korean officials expressed concern about the impact on regional trade. Meanwhile, Japan's manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, with the au Jibun Bank flash Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.4 in Juneits first expansion in 11 months. However, uncertainty around global demand and U.S. trade policy continues to cloud the outlook. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, 0.55% higher at 99.31. The dollar firmed 1.3% against the yen and was last at 147.99 its highest since May 15.Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.00 (Psychological level)an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.06 (61.8%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.29(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.63(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks dipped in choppy trading on Monday, with major indexes posting mixed results as investors reacted to heightened geopolitical risks following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. Caution dominated sentiment amid fears of further regional escalation.
At GMT (12:54) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.28 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.67 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Monday, supported by rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel that boosted safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,369.80 an ounce, as of 1211 GMT. U.S. gold futures were steady at $3,385.90.
Oil prices briefly touched a five-month high on Monday following U.S. airstrikes on Iran over the weekend. However, gains were trimmed as crude and gas shipments from the Middle East continued without disruption, easing immediate supply concerns.
Brent crude futures were up 85 cents, or 1.1%, at $77.86 a barrel by 1126 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 84 cents, or 1.14%, to $74.68.