Posted at 20 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -2.8%, -0.5% forecast,1.4% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -1.3%, 1.8% forecast,5.2% previous
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) 17.69B,17.90B forecast,20.05B previous
•UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (May) 20.936B , 9.284B previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -2.7%,-0.5%, forecast,1.3% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -1.3%,1.7% forecast,5.0% previous
• Greek Current Account (YoY) (Apr) -2.112B,-2.998B previous
• EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) 4.0% forecast,3.9%previous
• EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 2.0% forecast,1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun): -1.7 forecast, -4.0 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jun): 47.2 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jun): 27.0 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed Employments (Jun): 16.5 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Jun): 7.5 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun): 59.8 previous
• 12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): -0.2% forecast, -0.7% previous
• 12:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (May): 2.0% previous
• 12:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (May): 0.0% forecast, -0.8% previous
• 12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (May): -0.2%, -0.4% previous
• 12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): 0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
• 12:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (May): -3.6% previous
• 12:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (May): -0.8% forecast, -3.0% previous
•14:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (May) -0.1% forecast, -1.0% previous
•14:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Jun )-15.0 forecast, -15.2 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 439 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 555 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday, supported by a pause in the U.S. dollar’s recent rally as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The dollar had surged earlier in the week amid safe-haven demand, fueled by a week-long aerial conflict between Israel and Iran, with Israel targeting Iranian assets to disrupt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Market sentiment remained cautious as fears of a broader regional conflict lingered. Iran declared on Friday it would not engage in nuclear negotiations while under attack, despite European efforts to bring Tehran back to the table. Meanwhile, the White House said President Donald Trump would decide within two weeks on whether the U.S. will become directly involved in the conflict. This statement eased some investor anxiety over the risk of an immediate U.S. strike, offering brief support to risk-sensitive assets like the euro, though overall risk appetite remained subdued amid ongoing uncertainty. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound held steady on Friday, as a weaker dollar helped offset the impact of disappointing UK retail sales data. UK retail sales posted a sharp decline in May, falling 2.7% month-on-month, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. The drop was significantly steeper than the median forecast for a 0.5% decrease, following a strong April when consumer spending was boosted by purchases of food, summer clothing, and home improvement goods.On a year-on-year basis, retail sales volumes fell 1.3%, marking the largest annual decline since April 2024, and coming in well below economists’ expectations for a 1.7% rise. The disappointing figures raised concerns about the resilience of consumer demand, particularly amid elevated interest rates and cost-of-living pressures. Sterling rose 0.2% to $1.3495 on Friday but still ended the week down 0.6% against the dollar, snapping a two-week winning streak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3656(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3396(38.2%fib).), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Friday as traders remained cautious in the absence of clear direction from global risk events and ahead of the upcoming domestic inflation data. Market sentiment was subdued after President Trump announced a two-week delay on a potential strike against Iran, leaving investors in suspense while missile exchanges between Israel and Iran continued to escalate regional tensions. Australia’s labour market showed resilience in May, with solid gains in full-time employment helping to offset a modest drop in total jobs, supporting expectations of underlying economic strength. However, with little key data due before next week, attention is now squarely focused on the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report seen as a critical release that could shape the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6569(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6447(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6405(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered ground against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors digested BoJ's June meeting Minutes and Japan's CPI inflation data. Minutes from the BOJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting showed that policymakers generally supported the need to continue raising Japan’s still-low interest rates, though some advocated for a temporary pause amid growing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Meanwhile, Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which excludes fresh food rose 3.7% year-on-year in May, its highest level in over two years, and above market expectations of a 3.6% increase. The reading also marked acceleration from April’s 3.5%, reinforcing pressure on the BOJ to resume rate hikes despite economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs. The figure surpassed market expectations of a 3.6% rise and marked an acceleration from April’s 3.5%. The greenback was last down 0.04% against yen 145.36 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.44(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.34 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.10(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.51(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Friday, snapping a three-session losing streak, as easing concerns over U.S. intervention in the Middle East lifted sentiment.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was upby 1.58 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.02 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday and were set for their worst weekly drop in over a month, pressured by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rate cuts and a temporary easing of fears over an imminent U.S. strike on Iran.
Spot gold slipped 0.7% to $3,347.80 an ounce, as of 1201 GMT, and was down 2.5% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures shed 1.3% to $3,364.00.
Oil prices slipped on Friday but remained on track for a third straight weekly gain, as the White House's delay in deciding on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict eased immediate supply concerns.
Brent crude futures fell $1.89, or 2.4%, to $76.96 a barrel by 1000 GMT. They were still set to gain nearly 4% on the week.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July - which did not settle on Thursday as it was a U.S. holiday and expires on Friday - was up 82 cents, or 1.1% to $75.96.