Posted at 20 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (May) 0.3%, 0.4% previous
• Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (May) 3.7%,3.6% forecast,3.5% previous
• Japan National CPI (MoM) (May) 0.3% ,0.1% previous
• Japan National CPI (YoY) (May) 3.5%, 3.5% forecast,3.6% previous
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Jun) 3.50%,3.50% forecast, 3.50% previous
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00%,3.00% forecast,3.00% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -2.8%, -0.5% forecast,1.4% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -1.3%, 1.8% forecast,5.2% previous
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) 17.69B,17.90B forecast,20.05B previous
•UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (May) 20.936B , 9.284B previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -2.7%,-0.5%, forecast,1.3% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (May) -1.3%,1.7% forecast,5.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 Greek Current Account (YoY) (Apr) -2.998B previous
• 08:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) 4.0% forecast,3.9% previous
• 08:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 2.0% forecast,1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 EU ECOFIN Meetings
•10:00 EU Eurogroup Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained slightly on Friday, benefiting from a pause in the dollar's advance as investors assessed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, showing no signs of resolution, and markets remain on edge over the possibility of U.S. military involvement. Over the past week, Israel and Iran have been engaged in an intense aerial exchange, with Tel Aviv targeting Iranian military infrastructure in an effort to disrupt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.Amid growing concern, the White House has stated that President Donald Trump will make a decision within the next two weeks on whether the United States will join Israel in the conflict. This delay in action has helped ease immediate fears, with some investors viewing the timeframe as a window for potential de-escalation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound retreated against dollar on Friday after official data showed that UK retail sales volumes posted their largest monthly decline since December 2023. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales fell by 2.7% in May, a sharp drop compared to the median forecast of a 0.5% decline. The pullback came after a strong April, when consumers ramped up spending on food, summer clothing, and home improvement items.On an annual basis, retail sales volumes were down 1.3%, marking the largest year-on-year drop since April 2024 and falling well short of economists’ expectations for 1.7% annual growth. The weaker-than-expected figures raised concerns about the durability of consumer demand and weighed modestly on the pound in Friday’s trading session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3656(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3396(38.2%fib).), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as traders remained cautious in the absence of clear direction from global risk events and ahead of the upcoming domestic inflation data. Market sentiment was subdued after President Trump announced a two-week delay on a potential strike against Iran, leaving investors in suspense while missile exchanges between Israel and Iran continued to escalate regional tensions. Australia’s labour market showed resilience in May, with solid gains in full-time employment helping to offset a modest drop in total jobs, supporting expectations of underlying economic strength. However, with little key data due before next week, attention is now squarely focused on the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report seen as a critical release that could shape the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6569(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6447(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6405(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors digested BoJ's June meeting Minutes and Japan's CPI inflation data. Bank of Japan policymakers agreed on the importance of continuing to raise still-low interest rates, though some favored a temporary pause due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, minutes from the April 30–May 1 meeting revealed Friday.Japan’s core inflation rose to its highest level in over two years in May, reinforcing pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to resume interest rate hikes despite economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which excludes volatile fresh food prices climbed 3.7% year-on-year, according to data released Friday. The figure surpassed market expectations of a 3.6% rise and marked an acceleration from April’s 3.5%. The greenback was last down 0.04% against yen 145.36 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.44(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.34 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.10(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.51(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian shares rose modestly on Friday, as easing fears of an immediate U.S. strike on Iran weighed on the dollar and Brent crude prices.
South Korea’s KOSPI was up 1.36% , China A50 was up 0.31%,Hang Seng was up by 0.71%.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Friday and was set for a weekly loss, as reduced Fed rate cut expectations outweighed safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions.
Spot gold slipped 0.8% to $3,333.99 an ounce, as of 0604 GMT, and was down 2.5% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures shed 1.4% to $3,361.80.
Brent crude fell nearly $2 on Friday, trimming prior gains after the White House delayed a decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, though prices remained on track for a third straight weekly gain.
Brent crude futures fell $1.89, or 2.4%, to $76.96 a barrel by 0255 GMT. On a weekly basis, it was up 3.8%.