Posted at 19 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Israel-Iran conflict enters seventh day, sapping risk appetite
•US, Brazilian markets shut for holiday
•Swiss franc steady after SNB cuts rates to 0%
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 23:30 Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (May) 0.4% previous
• 23:30 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (May) 3.6%forecast, 3.5% previous
• 23:30 Japan National CPI (YoY) (May) 3.6% previous
• 23:30 Japan National CPI (MoM) (May) 0.3% previous
•01:00 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Jun) 3.50% forecast, 3.50% previous
•01:15 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investor sentiment remained fragile amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. A seventh consecutive day of airstrikes between Iran and Israel fueled fears of a broader regional conflict, while uncertainty over potential U.S. involvement compounded by President Donald Trump's ambiguous stance kept markets on edge. Concerns about global stability and energy supply disruptions weighed on risk appetite. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted that persistent oil price volatility could force the central bank to reconsider its rate cut trajectory. The euro held in negative territory at $1.1474 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1444(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England held interest rates steady at 4.25%, as widely expected. The central bank maintained a cautious stance, highlighting persistent inflation and heightened global risks. The decision saw a 6–3 vote split, with Deputy Governor Ramsden and two other members supporting a 25 basis point cut amid concerns over inflation dynamics and global uncertainty. The BoE also flagged signs of labour market weakness and rising energy costs tied to Middle East instability. Despite these concerns, the central bank maintained its inflation forecast, expecting a peak of 3.7% in September and an average just under 3.5% in the second half of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3656(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3396(38.2%fib).), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a near three-week low on Thursday, pressured by safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar as Middle East tensions escalated. Fears of a broader military escalation in the Middle East intensified after Iran and Israel exchanged a new round of airstrikes, further destabilizing the already volatile region. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem signaled optimism over a possible Canada-U.S. trade deal but warned of inflation risks if tariffs remain. Markets see a 75% chance the BoC holds rates next month. Looking ahead, Canadian retail sales data, due on Friday, could offer clues on the strength of the domestic economy. Analysts expect an increase of 0.5%. The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3735 per U.S. dollar, after touching its weakest intraday level since May 30 at 1.3746.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3757(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3831 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(June 18th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3561(23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against the yen on Thursday, supported by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israel and Iran's aerial attacks continued as U.S. President Donald Trump kept the world guessing about whether the U.S. would join Israel in air strikes on Tehran.Markets were hopeful of talks between the U.S. and Iran, and between the European Union and Iran on Friday, leading to a potential de-escalation in tensions. The mounting uncertainty has reinforced the dollar’s safe-haven status, leading to gains across multiple currencies including the yen, euro, Swiss franc. The Federal Reserve left rates steady on Wednesday. The Bank of England also left rates unchanged on Thursday, citing elevated global uncertainty and persistent inflation as concerns for the economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.44(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.34 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.10(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.51(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell to a more than one-month low on Thursday, as escalating Middle East tensions and uncertainty over possible U.S. involvement unsettled investors.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.12percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.34 percent.
Wall Street and the U.S. bond market were closed for the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were largely unchanged on Thursday, as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported safe-haven demand, offsetting the downward pressure from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy signals.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,365.79 an ounce at 0940 a.m. EDT (1340 GMT). U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $3,382.80.
Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Thursday as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, raising fears of broader regional instability.
Brent crude futures settled up $2.15, or 2.8%, to $78.85 a barrel, its highest close since January 22. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July was up $2.06, or 2.7%, to $77.20 at 1330 EST (1730 GMT).