Posted at 19 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8%, 0.7%forecast,0.5% previous
• New Zealand GDP (YoY) (Q1) -0.7%,-0.8% forecast,-1.3% previous
• New Zealand GDP Annual Average (Q1) -1.1% , -0.6% previous
• New Zealand GDP Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) 0.9%, 0.6% previous
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 1,571.3B ,-453.6B previous
•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 473.4B ,179.8B previous
•Australia Employment Change (May) -2.5K, 20.6K forecast,87.6K previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (May) 38.7K, 58.6K previous
•Australia Participation Rate (May) 67.0%, 67.1% forecast,67.1% previous
•Australia Reserve Assets Total (May) 103.4B, 103.8B previous
•Australia Unemployment Rate (May) 4.1%, 4.1% forecast,4.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:40 Spanish 10-Years Obligacion Auction 3.349%
•08:40 Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 2.386 previous
•08:40 Spanish 8-Years Obligacion Auction 3.062% previous
•09:00 French 6-Years OAT Auction 2.72% previous
•09:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (Apr) 0.10% previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC vote cut (Jun) 2 forecast,7 previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC vote hike (Jun) 0 forecast, 0 previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (Jun) 7 forecast, 2 previous
•11:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) 4.25% forecast, 4.25% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•09:45 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•09:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•11:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
•11:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investor sentiment remained fragile given the flaring conflict in the Middle East. Iran and Israel exchanged another round of airstrikes on Thursday, marking the seventh consecutive day of intensifying hostilities in the region. The sustained conflict has heightened global concerns about a broader military escalation, particularly as speculation grows over potential U.S. involvement. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump has yet to clarify whether the United States will support Israel’s ongoing strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, keeping markets and diplomatic circles on edge. The lack of a definitive U.S. stance is fueling anxieties about a possible regional war, with implications for global stability and energy markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Thursday as market awaited Bank of England rate decision. Britain's central bank looks set to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday as it waits to see if the economy and inflation continue to weaken, or whether the country will be hit by an energy price shock from the Israel-Iran conflict. British inflation cooled slightly in May after jumping in April, with price growth in the services sector - key for the BoE - dropping more sharply. Wage growth also slowed and there have been other signs of a weakening in the jobs market. So far, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by the same amount as the U.S. central bank since mid-2024 but by less than the European Central Bank, which lowered rates earlier this month after inflation in the euro zone returned to its 2% target. Most economists predicted a 7-2 split on the MPC in favour of holding rates at 4.25%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3597(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3656(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3396(38.2%fib).), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell below 0.6500 level against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as escalating middle east conflict weighed on risk sensitive Australian dollar. Iran and Israel traded airstrikes for a seventh straight day, as Trump stayed unclear on potential U.S. involvement. Tensions are rising amid fears of regional instability, amplified by the Gaza conflict. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a net loss of 2,500 jobs in May, following a revised surge of 87,600 in April. The data showed figures missed market expectations for a 22,500 gain. Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in May, unchanged for over a year, while the participation rate edged down to 67.0%.Full-time jobs rose 38,700 in May and hours worked rebounding by a solid 1.3%, after a flat April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6569(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6447(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6405(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Thursday as investor worries over a further escalation in the Middle East conflict boosted greenback. Iran and Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Thursday, pushing their conflict into a seventh straight day. The ongoing escalation has heightened regional tensions and raised concerns over potential involvement from other powers Much of the recent nervousness in markets has been centred around crude supply shocks from the Middle East which were reflected in elevated crude prices .Rapidly rising geopolitical tensions have led to the dollar swiftly reclaiming its safe-haven status, making inroads against the yuan, yen, euro and the Swiss franc. The greenback was last up 0.11% against yen 145.30 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.44(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.34 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.10(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.51(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian shares dipped on Thursday as markets were on edge over the possible entry of the United States into the week-old Israel-Iran air war.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.88% , China A50 was down 0.64%,Hang Seng was down by 2.00%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday as safe-haven demand increased with the Iran-Israel conflict entering its seventh day, while platinum surged to a more than 10-year high amid fears of a looming supply shortage.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,371.15 an ounce, as of 0526 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $3,388.60.
Oil prices surged on Thursday after Israel confirmed strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak overnight, stoking fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East that could threaten global crude supply chains.
Brent crude futures rose 88 cents, or 1.15%, to $77.58 a barrel by 0708 GMT, after gaining 0.3% in the previous session when high volatility saw prices fall as much as 2.7%.