Posted at 18 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 1.4% previous
• UK Core CPI (YoY) (May): 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.8% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (May): 4.1%, 4.2% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 1.8% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (May): 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK CPI n.s.a (May): 138.40, 138.20 previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 1.7% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (May): 4.3%, 4.2% forecast, 4.5% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (May): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (May): 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (May): 1.9%, 1.9% forecast, 2.2% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (May): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.6% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (May): 1.8%, 2.1% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (May): -0.1%, 0.6% previous
•EU CPI n.s.a (May): 128.71, 128.73 forecast, 128.77 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (May): 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (May): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Building Permits (MoM): -4.0% previous
•12:30 US Building Permits: 1.420M forecast, 1.422M previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.940M forecast, 1.956M previous
•12:30 US Housing Starts (MoM): 1.6% previous
•12:30 US Housing Starts: 1.350M forecast, 1.361M previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 246K forecast, 248K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 240.25K previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: -2.300M forecast, -3.644M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): 0.228M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports: 0.451M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.403M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production: -0.097M, previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: 1.246M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production: 0.681M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles: 0.487M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept investors cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day. Concerns deepened after Israel intensified its military campaign against Iran, now in its sixth day, aimed at halting Iran's nuclear activities and pressing for regime change. On the data front Eurozone inflation slowed in May, as expected, driven by falling energy prices, final data from Eurostat confirmed on Wednesday. Headline inflation eased to 1.9%, down from 2.2% in April, marking the first time the rate has dipped below the ECB’s 2% target since September 2024.The euro edged up 0.2% at $1.1515.A broader index tracking the greenback against six other currencies slipped 0.1% after a 0.6% jump in the previous trading session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Wednesday as investors digested UK inflation data and looked ahead to central bank meetings in the U.S. and UK.British inflation slowed in May, with a notable decline in services price inflation a key metric closely watched by the Bank of England. Services inflation fell to 4.7%, down from 5.4% in April, aligning with the BoE's forecast for the month.The BoE is slated to meet on Thursday and is widely expected to hold base rate. However, the inflation data has given it room to make further cuts.Across the Atlantic, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's policy decision due later today, as investors seek clues on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts.Investors will closely scrutinize any fresh signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3622(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3516(June 13th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3427(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as Australian dollar was supported by firm oil prices and mild weakness in the greenback. Oil extended its rally into Wednesday, building on sharp gains from the previous session, which were driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.The pair has fluctuated over recent sessions as investors assess the potential for prolonged regional tensions to impact global energy supply chains.Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged. The accompanying statement and economic projections are expected to provide key guidance on the rate path ahead. On the domestic front, attention turns to Australia’s May employment report, set for release on Thursday. Economists polled forecast a net jobs gain of 22,500 and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.1%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6569(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6439(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6405(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as greenback was pressured by growing investor unease over the escalating conflict in the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" as the Israel-Iran air war entered its sixth day. Adding to the tension, U.S. military officials confirmed the deployment of additional fighter aircraft to the region, aimed at reinforcing American presence. While the U.S. has refrained from direct involvement so far, it has played a supporting role, including intercepting missile attacks directed at Israel. The greenback was last down 0.3% against yen 144.79 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.00 (Psychological level)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.15 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.68(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.31(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, while ongoing tensions in the Middle East further weighed on sentiment.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped slightly on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, while ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran kept safe-haven demand in focus.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,385.79 an ounce as of 1130 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $3,403.80.
Oil prices held steady on Wednesday, following a 4% surge in the previous session, as markets assessed the risk of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for direct U.S. involvement..
Brent crude futures gained 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.61 a barrel by 1058 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 17 cents, also 0.2%, to $75.01 per barrel.