Posted at 18 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 1.4% previous
• UK Core CPI (YoY) (May): 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.8% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (May): 4.1%, 4.2% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 1.8% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (May): 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK CPI n.s.a (May): 138.40, 138.20 previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%, 1.7% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (May): 4.3%, 4.2% forecast, 4.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (May): 2.3% forecast, 2.7% previous
•09:00 Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (May): 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI (YoY) (May): 1.9% forecast, 2.2% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI (MoM) (May): 0.0% forecast ,0.6% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (May): 2.1% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (May): 0.6% previous
•09:00 Eurozone CPI n.s.a (May): 128.73 forecast, 128.77 previous
•09:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (May): 2.4% forecast, 2.7% previous
•09:00 Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (May): 0.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro posted modest gains against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept investors cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day.Concerns deepened after Israel intensified its military campaign against Iran, now in its sixth day, aimed at halting Iran's nuclear activities and pressing for regime change. Adding to investor unease, Reuters reported that the U.S. military is ramping up its presence in the region, fueling speculation of possible American intervention an outcome markets fear could further destabilize the energy-rich region and disrupt critical supply chains.Amid the heightened uncertainty, attention is squarely on the Federal Reserve. While the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, markets will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and the so-called “dot plot” for clues on the future rate path.The euro edged up 0.2% at $1.1515.A broader index tracking the greenback against six other currencies slipped 0.1% after a 0.6% jump in the previous trading session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Wednesday but gains were limited as investors were hesitant to scoop up risk assets. Market participants grew increasingly wary over the potential for deeper U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, now in its sixth day. Heightening concerns, former President Donald Trump called for Iran’s unconditional surrender, warning that U.S. patience was wearing thin.On the data front, UK inflation slowed in May as expected, easing pressure on the Bank of England ahead of its policy decision. The headline consumer price index rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with forecasts, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics. The deceleration was driven by a drop in airfares following a sharp April surge and adjustments related to earlier tax data errors. However, food prices climbed at the fastest pace in over a year, providing a partial offset.Despite the mixed inflation components, the figures are unlikely to alter expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold at its June meeting on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3622(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3516(June 13th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3427(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as Australian dollar was supported by firm oil prices and mild weakness in the greenback. Oil extended its rally into Wednesday, building on sharp gains from the previous session, which were driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.The pair has fluctuated over recent sessions as investors assess the potential for prolonged regional tensions to impact global energy supply chains.Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged. The accompanying statement and economic projections are expected to provide key guidance on the rate path ahead. On the domestic front, attention turns to Australia’s May employment report, set for release on Thursday. Economists polled forecast a net jobs gain of 22,500 and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.1%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6569(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6439(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6405(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as greenback was pressured by growing investor unease over the escalating conflict in the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" as the Israel-Iran air war entered its sixth day. Adding to the tension, U.S. military officials confirmed the deployment of additional fighter aircraft to the region, aimed at reinforcing American presence. While the U.S. has refrained from direct involvement so far, it has played a supporting role, including intercepting missile attacks directed at Israel.Analysts noted that markets are increasingly concerned about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handles around 20% of global seaborne oil. Such concerns have lent support to oil prices while weighing on risk sentiment and the dollar. The greenback was last down 0.2% against yen 144.90 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.00 (Psychological level)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.15 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.68(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.31(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets were mixed on Wednesday as investors kept a wary eye on the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.87% , South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.74%,Hang Seng was down by 0.19%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower in volatile trading on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,381.10 an ounce, as of 0647 GMT. U.S. gold futures also eased 0.2% to $3,399.30.
Oil prices dipped in Asian trade on Wednesday, paring some of the sharp 4% gains from the previous session.
Brent crude futures slipped 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $76.10 a barrel by 0723 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $74.61 per barrel.