Posted at 17 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.060% , 3.977% previous
•German ZEW Current Conditions (Jun) -72.0 , -74.0 forecast, -82.0 previous
•German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)47.5 ,34.8 forecast,25.2 previous
•EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun) 35.3 , 23.5 forecast,11.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May): 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (May): -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (May): 2.0% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (May): -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (May): 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (May): 0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -0.5% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 5.16% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (May): 0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Apr): -2.94B forecast, -4.23B previous
•12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Apr): 15.630B previous
• 13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate (May): 77.7% forecast, 77.7% previous
•13:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) (May): 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•13:15 US Industrial Production (YoY) (May): 1.49% previous
•13:15 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May): 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•13:15 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Apr): 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun): 36 forecast, 34 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors continued to focus on the Middle East conflict and upcoming central bank meetings. Markets feared that conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran could spill over in the broader oil-rich Middle East. Oil markets' reactions have been the most volatile, while stocks and currencies have been more guarded.U.S. President Donald Trump urged everyone to evacuate Tehran and cut short his visit to the Group of Seven summit in Canada, while a separate report said he had asked for the national security council to be prepared in the situation room. Investors also monitored developments on trade deals with Trump's early July deadline on tariffs fast approaching. Meanwhile, data showed German investor sentiment jumped in June, with the ZEW index rising to 47.5 from 25.2 in May well above expectations boosted by improving growth prospects for Europe’s largest economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped on Tuesday as investors remained focused on escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, as well as key central bank decisions from the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve. U.S. President Donald Trump urged American citizens to evacuate Tehran and left the G7 summit in Canada early. Reports also indicated he directed the National Security Council to be on alert in the Situation Room. While no oil supply disruptions have occurred yet, market participants are increasingly uneasy about the potential for regional instability in the oil-rich Middle East. The conflict intensified Monday, with Israeli strikes targeting Iranian state media and nuclear sites. Central bank meetings will dominate market attention this week, with both the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates steady. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3622(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3516(June 13th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3427(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, displaying resilience despite mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market nerves intensified as Israel and Iran launched fresh air strikes, dashing hopes of a quick resolution. Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranian citizens to evacuate Tehran, raising fears of further escalation. Amid the growing unease, investor attention has shifted to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, markets will be closely watching Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for any hints on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts. At GMT 06:56, the Australian dollar was trading up 0.23 % at 0.6539 against greenback. Markets are currently pricing in two cuts by year-end Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6569(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6439(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6405(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) reaffirmed its cautious stance on policy normalization. Wrapping up its two-day meeting, the BOJ left short-term interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, in line with expectations and with unanimous backing from policymakers. While the central bank maintained its existing bond tapering strategy, it signaled plans to slow the pace of reduction in the next fiscal year. Under the current framework, the BOJ aims to cut government bond purchases by 400 billion yen ($2.76 billion) per quarter, targeting a monthly purchase level of around 3 trillion yen by March 2026. The outlook for further tightening remains uncertain, as Japan’s export-driven economy comes under renewed pressure from rising U.S. trade tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.64 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.98(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.16(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran entered its fifth day, fueling concerns over regional instability and driving investors away from risk assets.
At GMT (12:21) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.78 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.59 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold advanced Tuesday, supported by safe-haven demand amid the deepening Israel-Iran conflict, while investors also turned cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting.
Spot gold was up 0.1% to $3,386.29 an ounce, as of 1203 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $3,404.90.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, although key oil and gas infrastructure and supply routes have remained largely unaffected.
Brent crude futures gained $1.56, or 2.1%, to $74.79 a barrel by 1202 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.42, or nearly 2%, at $73.19.