Posted at 16 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Housing Starts (May) 279.5K, 248.0Kforecast,280.2K previous
•US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) -16.00, -5.90 forecast, -9.20 previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.940% ,1.943% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.948%,1.943% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.953%,1.963% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50% forecast,0.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
•06:30 Japan BoJ Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors monitored the fighting between Israel and Iran for signs it could escalate into a broader regional conflict and braced for a week packed with central bank meetings.Meanwhile, the U.S. military moved a large number of refuelling aircraft to Europe to give Trump options as Middle East tensions rise, and the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz was heading to the Middle East on a pre-planned deployment. Meanwhile, Top of the agenda this week is a host of central bank monetary policy decisions, with the spotlight on the Fed.The central bank is widely expected to leave borrowing costs steady, but investors will likely lap up its views on recent data that has broadly indicated softening economic activity even as risks to increasing price pressures stay high.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Monday as investors remained cautious amid escalating Middle East tensions. The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has added to global economic uncertainty, boosting oil prices and raising fears of broader instability. These risks come as G7 leaders convene, adding complexity to an already fragile outlook. Attention now turns to upcoming policy decisions from the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve, with markets closely watching for signals on how central banks will address rising geopolitical and economic challenges, including U.S. trade measures. Meanwhile, The Bank of England is set to meet this Thursday, with markets widely expecting it to hold rates steady at 4.25%. Traders are currently pricing in two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with the next move most likely coming in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3622(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3516(June 13th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3427(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as investors looked past rising Middle East tensions and turned their attention to the G7 summit. Market optimism from a G7 draft statement on stability faded after President Trump called Russia’s removal from the group a mistake. Trade negotiations remain a key focus, with investors watching for signs of progress on a U.S.-Canada agreement. Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and Iran persisted, though oil prices dipped slightly after Friday’s sharp 7% rally. Top of the agenda this week is a host of central bank monetary policy decisions, with the spotlight on the Fed.The central bank is widely expected to leave borrowing costs steady, but investors will likely lap up its views on recent data that has broadly indicated softening economic activity even as risks to increasing price pressures stay high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3753(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3828 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3685(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3661(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Monday as investors weighed escalating Iran-Israel tensions and braced for a wave of global central bank decisions .Israel and Iran exchanged new strikes on Sunday, causing civilian casualties and heightening fears of a wider regional conflict, as both sides warned civilians to stay alert. The focus this week will be on a series of central bank policy decisions, including the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Attention also turns to the G7 summit, where fresh commentary on U.S. tariffs and central bank outlooks may influence market sentiment and policy expectations .The Bank of Japan will meet on Tuesday and is widely expected to keep rates steady at 0.5%, while signaling the potential for policy tightening later this year. There is also speculation that the central bank may discuss slowing the pace of its government bond holding next fiscal year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.06(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.87 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.14(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday, rebounding from last week’s losses as Kering surged on news of a CEO change, while investors looked past Middle East tensions that had triggered recent market declines.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.78 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.75 percent.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Monday as easing oil prices calmed investor fears that the Israel-Iran conflict would disrupt crude supply and fuel inflationary pressures.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.75% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.94% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.52% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell over 1% on Monday as traders booked profits after an eight-week high, with attention shifting to escalating Israel-Iran tensions and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Spot gold was down 1.2% to $3,392.86 an ounce by 01:53 p.m. EDT (1753 GMT) after hitting its highest level since April 22 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 1% lower at $3,417.30.
Oil prices fell $1 a barrel on Monday in choppy trading, as reports of Iran seeking to ease tensions with Israel raised hopes of a potential truce, easing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures settled $1, or 1.35%, lower to $73.23 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.21, or 1.66%, to $71.77 per barrel.