Posted at 16 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian CPI (YoY) (May): 1.6%,1.7% forecast, 1.9% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (May): -0.1% , 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (May): 1.4%,1.7%, previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (May): -0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Italian HICP (YoY) (May): 1.7% ,1.9% forecast, 2.0% previous
•Eurozone Wages (YoY) (Q1): 3.40%,4.10% previous
•Eurozone Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q1): 3.40%,3.20% forecast, 3.70% previous
•German 12-Month Bubill Auction: 1.808%, 1.873% forecast, previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.943% previous
•13:30 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.943% previous
• 13:30 French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.963% previous
• 15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.250% previous
• 15:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 4.150% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors closely tracked escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, watching for any signs of a broader regional conflict. With neither side showing signs of de-escalation, markets turned cautious amid fears that Tehran might attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz a critical global oil transit route potentially triggering wider economic disruption. The rising geopolitical risk adds another layer of uncertainty for traders and central banks alike, already grappling with economic volatility fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to reshape global trade policy. Attention also shifted toward a busy week of central bank meetings that could further sway market sentiment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1607(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1409(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound held steady on Monday as markets remained cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has heightened global economic uncertainty, driving oil prices higher and raising fears of broader fallout. These developments come just as Group of Seven (G7) leaders gather for a summit, adding further complexity to an already fragile global backdrop. Focus now shifts to key monetary policy meetings later this week from the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Investors will be watching closely for any signals on how central banks plan to navigate rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty fueled by U.S. tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3622(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3632(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3516(June 13th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3427(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose higher on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions following fresh clashes between Israel and Iran. The confrontation showed no signs of easing, with both nations continuing to exchange military strikes and threats, raising fears of prolonged instability across the Middle East.Looking ahead, investor attention shifts to Australia’s monthly employment report due on Thursday. Markets are expecting a gain of 25,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Continued strength in the labour market could challenge current market expectations, which currently price in a 75% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6569(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6439(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6405(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially gained but gave up some ground against the Japanese yen on Monday as intensified clashes between Israel kept markets on edge and risk appetite in check.Israel and Iran exchanged new strikes on Sunday, causing civilian casualties and heightening fears of a wider regional conflict, as both sides warned civilians to stay alert. The focus this week will be on a series of central bank policy decisions, including the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Attention also turns to the G7 summit, where fresh commentary on U.S. tariffs and central bank outlooks may influence market sentiment and policy expectations .The Bank of Japan will meet on Tuesday and is widely expected to keep rates steady at 0.5%, while signaling the potential for policy tightening later this year. There is also speculation that the central bank may discuss slowing the pace of its government bond holding next fiscal year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.64 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.98(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.16(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Monday, recovering from last week’s declines as investors looked past intensifying Middle East tensions..
At GMT (12:21) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.96percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Monday as investors assessed the potential fallout from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, which has injected fresh geopolitical risk into global markets.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,419.89 an ounce, as of 1059 GMT, after hitting its highest level since April 22 earlier in the session.
Oil prices eased slightly on Monday, trimming Friday’s sharp 7% rally, as markets reassessed the weekend’s renewed military exchanges between Israel and Iran.
Brent futures were down 96 cents, or 1.3%, to $73.27 a barrel by 1157 GMT, while U.S. WTI futures were off $1.05 or 1.4%, to $71.93.