Posted at 06 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (May): 2.5% , 3.2%previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (May): -0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
• German Exports (MoM) (Apr): -1.7%, -0.5% forecast, 1.2% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (Apr): 3.9%,-1.4% previous
• German Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): -1.4%, -0.9% forecast, 2.3% previous
• German Trade Balance (Apr): 14.6B, 20.2B forecast, 21.2B previous
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr): -2.02%, -0.85% previous
• French Current Account (Apr): -4.10B, , 1.00B previous
• French Exports (Apr): 49.3B, , 52.4B previous
• French Imports (Apr): 57.2B, 58.6B previous
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): -1.4%, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
• French Reserve Assets Total (May): 304,609.0M, 303,057.0M previous
• French Trade Balance (Apr): -8.0B, -6.0B forecast, -6.3B previous
• EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q1): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
• EU Employment Overall (Q1): 169,794.4K, 169,974.4K forecast, 169,435.3K previous
• EU GDP (YoY) (Q1): 1.5%, 1.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 2.3%, 1.4% forecast, 1.9% previous
• EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (May): 3.7% forecast, 3.8% previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May): 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (May): 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•12:30 US Government Payrolls (May): 10.0K previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (May): -1K forecast, -1K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (May): 126K forecast, 177K previous
•12:30 US Participation Rate (May): 62.6% previous
•12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (May): 110K forecast, 167K previous
•12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (May): 7.8% previous
•12:30 US Unemployment Rate (May): 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (May): 3.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Employment Change (May): -11.9K forecast, 7.4K previous
•12:30 Canada Full Employment Change (May): 31.5K previous
•12:30 Canada Part Time Employment Change (May): -24.2K previous
•12:30 Canada Participation Rate (May): 65.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (May): 7.0% forecast, 6.9% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 461 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 563 previous
•19:00 US Consumer Credit (Apr): 11.30B forecast, 10.17B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly on Friday as dollar recovered some ground ahead of US payrolls data. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due Friday will be closely watched, especially after a string of disappointing economic data this week highlighted the growing strain from President Donald Trump's tariffs. Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 130,000 in the past month, with the unemployment rate likely holding at 4.2%, though there’s an increased risk it could edge up to 4.3% . The payrolls data comes ahead of the Fed's policy meeting later this month where traders expect the U.S. central bank to keep interest rates unchanged. Traders currently expect two rate cuts by the end of this year, with the first 25 basis-point cut seen in September . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped lower on Friday as traders turned cautious ahead of the crucial U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. A monthly reading of U.S. non-farm payrolls will set the tone for the day, and help investors gauge how the Federal Reserve could navigate this uncertain trade environment. A series of weak U.S. data releases this week has heightened concerns about a potential downside surprise in the jobs numbers, which could deepen stagflation worries and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts. Economists expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 130,000 in May, with the unemployment rate likely holding steady at 4.2%. Sterling dipped 0.18% to about $1.35 after reaching a three-year high in the previous session, but was still on track to gain roughly 0.6% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped slightly on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Market participants are refraining from major moves, waiting to see whether the jobs data delivers a strong or weak signal, which could have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar and overall market sentiment. Expectations are for payrolls to have increased by 130,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, though there is rising concern it could inch up to 4.3%. A series of soft U.S. economic reports this week has heightened fears of a downside surprise, potentially accelerating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.At GMT 12:15, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.32% to $0.6485. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6429(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6373(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Friday as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Investors are bracing for the possibility of weaker-than-expected data, which could heighten stagflation concerns and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates sooner. Federal Reserve policymakers indicated that inflation remains a greater concern than labor market cooling, suggesting a prolonged hold on monetary policy adjustments. Adding to the cautious mood, data from Japan showed household spending unexpectedly declined in April, falling 0.1% year-on-year well below forecasts for a 1.4% increase and down sharply from March’s 2.1% gain as rising living costs continued to squeeze consumer budgets .Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European eased slightly on Friday as investors stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. jobs data, with ongoing trade tensions adding to market uncertainty.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.00 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Friday and was set for a weekly gain as weak U.S. data raised Fed rate cut hopes; silver climbed to a 13-year high.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,359.26 an ounce, as of 1151 GMT. Bullion has gained 2.1% for the week so far.U.S. gold futures climbed 0.2% to $3,382.70.
Oil dipped on Friday but was headed for its first weekly gain in three weeks as resumed U.S.-China trade talks lifted demand hopes.
Brent crude futures fell 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.06 a barrel at 0914 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 36 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.01.