Posted at 05 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun): 2.15%, 2.15% forecast, 2.40% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,904K, 1,910K forecast, 1,907K previous
•US Exports (Apr): $289.40B, $281.10B previous
•US Imports (Apr): $351.00B, $419.40B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims: 247K, 236K forecast, 239K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 235.00K, 230.50K previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) Q1: -1.5%, -0.8% forecast, -1.7% previous
•US Trade Balance (Apr): -$61.60B, -$67.60B forecast, -$138.30B previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) Q1: 6.6%, 5.7% forecast, 2.0% previous
•Canada Exports (Apr): C$60.44B, C$67.76B previous
•Canada Imports (Apr): C$67.58B, C$70.01B previous
•Canada Trade Balance (Apr): -C$7.14B, -C$1.40B forecast, -C$2.26B previous
•Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (May): 53.8, 52.3 previous
•Canada Ivey PMI (May): 48.9, 48.3 forecast, 47.9 previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.170%, 4.215% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.225%, 4.225% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 23:30 Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Apr) -0.8% forecast, 0.4% previous
• 23:30 Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Apr) 1.5% forecast, 2.1% previous
• 23:30 Japan Foreign Reserves (USD) (May) 1,298.2B previous
•01:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Apr) 5.10% forecast, 9.90% previous
•01:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr) -5.7% forecast, -8.8% previous
•01:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Apr) -4.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank delivered widely expected rate cut and struck a hawkish tone on future policy moves. The European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected on Thursday but hinted at a pause in its year-long easing cycle after inflation finally returned to its 2% target.The ECB has lowered borrowing costs eight times, or by 2 percentage points since last June, seeking to prop up a euro zone economy that was struggling even before erratic U.S. economic and trade policies dealt it further blows. With inflation now just below 2%, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was in a "good position" with the current rate path, a signal investors took to mean a break in cuts, if not an end to policy easing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained strength on Thursday as a combination of global and domestic factors bolstered investor confidence in the British pound. A key catalyst was the European Central Bank’s "hawkish" rate cut. Adding to the pound’s momentum were improving U.K. business surveys, which pointed to stronger-than-expected activity in the services and manufacturing sectors. This data reinforced the view that the British economy is showing resilience despite external pressures. Meanwhile, easing concerns over global trade tensions and U.S. tariffs further improved risk sentiment, encouraging flows into the pound. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.11% to 98.71. Sterling was 0.11% higher against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose to its strongest level in nearly eight months on Thursday, defying a record trade deficit and a volatile U.S. dollar. Canada’s trade gap widened sharply in April to C$7.1 billion ($5.2 billion), its largest on record, as U.S. tariffs curbed demand for Canadian exports. Despite the gloomy data, sentiment remained resilient. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki noted that businesses affected by trade tensions appeared less alarmed about extreme tariff outcomes and were preparing to adjust prices accordingly. Crude oil, a key Canadian export, also lent support to the loonie, with prices climbing 0.8% to $63.37 per barrel.The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3665 to the U.S. dollar, after touching its strongest intraday level since October 8 at 1.3635. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3753(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3828 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3685(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3661(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Thursday as market positioning ahead of the jobs data. Weaker-than-expected U.S. private payrolls and services sector data on Wednesday raised concerns about an economic slowdown caused by trade uncertainties, with investors focusing squarely on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.Initial jobless claims data on Thursday showed Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits last week rose for a second straight week. Weaker-than-expected U.S. private payrolls and services sector data on Wednesday raised concerns about an economic slowdown caused by trade uncertainties, with investors focusing squarely on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.Initial jobless claims data on Thursday showed Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits last week rose for a second straight week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Thursday, reversing earlier losses, as hawkish remarks from ECB President Lagarde outweighed the anticipated rate cut.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.18 percent.
Wall Street closed lower on Thursday as a drop in Tesla shares overshadowed optimism from progress in U.S.-China tariff talks.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.26% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.53% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.83% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Thursday, rebounding from the prior session's loss, after news of renewed U.S.-China trade talks boosted sentiment.
Brent crude futures settled up 48 cents, or 0.7%, at $65.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 52 cents, or 0.8%, at $63.37 a barrel.
Gold fell on Thursday as safe-haven demand eased after Trump and Xi agreed to resume trade talks, while silver surged past $35 to hit a 13-year high.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,351.69 an ounce as of 02:13 p.m. EDT (1813 GMT), after earlier trading 0.6% higher. U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% lower at $3,375.10.