Posted at 05 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Finnish Trade Balance (Apr): -0.10B, -0.06B previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (May): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (May): 2.9%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (May): 50.5, 50.1 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (May): 44.4, 45.1 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (May): 43.1, 43.6 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (May): 45.6, 46.0 previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (May): 1.6%, -10.4% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): 0.7%, 0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 3.7%, -2.7% previous
•S&P Global Construction PMI (May) (UK): 47.9, 47.4 forecast, 46.6 previous
•UK New Passenger Cars Registration (May): 150,070, 120,331 previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Apr): 0.7%, 1.2% forecast, 1.9% previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Apr): -2.2%, -1.8% forecast, -1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 EU Deposit Facility Rate (Jun): 2.00% forecast, 2.25% previous
•12:15 ECB Marginal Lending Facility Rate: 2.65% previous
•12:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun): 2.15% forecast, 2.40% previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.91M forecast, 1.919M previous
•12:30 US Exports (Apr): $278.50B previous
•12:30 US Imports (Apr): $419.00B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 236K forecast, 240K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 230.75K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1): -0.8% forecast, -1.7% previous
•12:30 US Trade Balance (Apr): -$67.60B forecast, -$140.50B previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1): 5.7% forecast, 2.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Exports (Apr): $69.90B previous
•12:30 Canada Imports (Apr): $70.40B previous
•12:30 Canada Trade Balance (Apr): -$1.40B forecast, -$0.51B previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (n.s.a.) (May): 52.3 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (May): 48.3 forecast, 47.9 forecast
•14:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction Yield: 4.215% previous
•14:00 US 8-Week Bill Auction Yield: 4.225% previous
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 4.6% forecast, 4.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:45 ECB Press Conference
• 12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 14:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•16:00 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
•16:20 Canada BoC Deputy Gov Kozicki Speaks
•17:30 US Fed Schmid Speaks
•17:30 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained steady on Thursday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the highly anticipated interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). Markets have largely priced in a 25 basis point reduction, potentially marking the ECB’s first policy easing in this cycle, driven by signs of easing inflation in the Eurozone and subdued economic growth. Traders refrained from making significant moves in the euro ahead of the ECB decision, awaiting clear direction from ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding the future trajectory of interest rates. While the rate cut is broadly expected, market focus centers on whether the ECB signals further cuts to come or opts for a more cautious, data-driven approach moving forward. The euro was largely flat at $1.1421 after a 0.4% gain in the previous trading session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained strength on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened following a series of disappointing economic reports from the United States. The ISM Services PMI for May unexpectedly fell into contraction territory at 49.9, below the anticipated 52.0, marking its first dip below 50 in nearly a year. Meanwhile, the ADP National Employment Report revealed that private payrolls increased by only 37,000 in May, far short of the expected 110,000, fueling concerns about the labor market’s health. This weak economic data has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this year, coinciding with ongoing calls from former President Donald Trump for the Fed to ease monetary policy. Sterling last fetched $1.3572. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday, boosted by improved Chinese services PMI data and a weaker U.S. dollar. China’s services sector expanded slightly faster in May, with domestic orders rising, although export orders declined due to uncertainties around U.S. tariffs, according to a private survey. The Caixin/S&P Global services PMI increased to 51.1 in May from 50.7, indicating ongoing growth. China’s economy also grew faster than expected in the first quarter, with the government maintaining its annual growth target near 5%. However, analysts caution that U.S. tariffs may slow this momentum. Meanwhile, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed to A$5.4 billion in April from A$6.9 billion, slightly missing forecasts, as gold exports retreated from record levels. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6429(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6373(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Thursday as investors stayed cautious ahead of Friday’s U.S. payrolls report, which is expected to provide key insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The dollar weakened following disappointing U.S. jobs and services data, heightening anticipation for the more significant employment figures due later this week.Meanwhile, Japanese government data showed that real wages in Japan fell for the fourth consecutive month in April, as inflation continued to outpace wage growth. Total average cash earnings rose 2.3% to ¥302,453 ($2,098.04) in April, matching the revised increase seen in March. The sluggish wage growth adds to concerns about Japan’s economic outlook amid ongoing global uncertainty fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures. The dollar was a shade higher against the yen at 143.20 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, buoyed by broad sector gains, as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s policy decision.
At GMT (11:31) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.28 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices stabilized on Thursday after dropping over 1% the previous day, influenced by rising U.S. gasoline and diesel stocks and Saudi Arabia’s price cuts for July Asian crude buyers.
Brent crude futures were up 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $65.07 a barrel by 1000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $63.02 a barrel.
Gold remained steady on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data later this week to gauge the direction of interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,383.79 an ounce, as of 0933 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,407.80.