Posted at 05 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Overall wage income of employees (Apr) 2.3%,2.6% forecast,2.3% previous
• Japan Overtime Pay (YoY) (Apr) 0.80%, -0.40% previous
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -118.0B, 100.4B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 336.1B , 309.1B previous
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Apr) -2.4% 7.2% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Apr) 1.1%, -2.4% previous
•Australia Trade Balance (Apr) 5.413B,5.960B forecast, 6.892B previous
•China Caixin Services PMI (May) 51.1, 51.0 forecast, 50.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (May) 50.1 previous
• 07:30 HCOB HCOB Germany Construction PMI (May) 45.1 previous
• 07:30 HCOB HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (May) 43.6 previous
• 07:30 HCOB HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (May) 46.0 previous
•08:00 UK Car Registration (YoY) (May) -10.4% previous
•08:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) -2.8% previous
• 08:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
•09:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Apr) -1.8% forecast, -1.6% previous
•09:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Apr) 1.2% forecast, 1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded in tight range on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of a widely anticipated interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). Market participants have largely priced in a 25 basis point cut, marking what could be the ECB’s first policy easing move in this cycle, as inflation in the Eurozone shows signs of moderating and economic growth remains subdued.Traders largely avoided making big moves in the euro ahead of the policy decision, awaiting clear guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde on the future path of interest rates. While a rate cut is mostly expected, the key focus will be on the central bank’s tone whether it signals more cuts to follow or adopts a more cautious, data-dependent approach. The euro was largely flat at $1.1421 after a 0.4% gain in the previous trading session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound steadied on Thursday as investors awaited Friday's monthly payrolls figures to gauge the state of the US labour market. The ADP National Employment Report revealed U.S. private employers added the fewest workers in over two years in May.The more comprehensive employment report on Friday is expected to show that non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs in May after advancing by 177,000 in April, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%.Markets have priced in 56 basis points of rate cuts this year from the Fed, with traders pricing in a 95% chance for easing in September. Sterling last fetched $1.3570. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Thursday as improvement in China’s services PMI data supported Australian dollar. China’s services activity grew slightly faster in May as domestic orders rose, though export orders fell amid U.S. tariff uncertainty, a private survey showed.The Caixin/S&P Global services PMI rose to 51.1 in May from 50.7, signaling continued expansion. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, and the government has maintained its annual growth target of around 5%. However, analysts warn that U.S. tariffs could significantly dampen momentum. Separate data showed, Australia's trade surplus narrowed to A$5.4B in April from A$6.9B, slightly below forecasts, as exports of gold pulled back from record highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6429(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6373(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Thursday as dollar recovered some ground as market focus turned to Friday's U.S. payrolls report for clues on the Federal Reserve's next move.The dollar fell in the prior session after weak U.S. jobs and services data, with more significant employment figures due Friday.On the data front, Japanese real wages fell for the fourth straight month in April, as inflation continued to outpace pay gains, government data showed on Thursday. The wage data adds to concerns about Japan's growth outlook at a time U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs stir uncertainty about the global economy. Total average cash earnings rose 2.3% to ¥302,453 ($2,098.04) in April, matching March’s revised increase. The dollar was a shade higher against the yen at 143.10 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
Asian shares edged higher on Thursday, while the U.S. dollar remained subdued as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s policy outlook amid a turbulent global economic backdrop.
At GMT 07:09 China A50 was up 0.15% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 1.49%,Hang Seng was up by 0.79%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Thursday as investors weighed weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and persistent global uncertainties, while awaiting Friday’s U.S. payroll report for further direction.
Spot gold edged down 0.3% to $3,365.73 an ounce, as of 0611 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% to $3,388.90.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, pressured by a rise in U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories, price cuts by Saudi Arabia for July crude shipments to Asia, and ongoing global economic uncertainty.
Brent crude futures fell 1 cent to $64.85 a barrel at 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 11 cents, or 0.2%, dropping to $62.74 a barrel.