Posted at 04 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (May) 50.6, 50.5 forecast, 51.0 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (May) 51.0, 50.8 forecast, 52.4 previous
•Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.2%, 0.4%forecast, 0.6% previous
•Australia GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.3%, 1.5% forecast,1.3% previous
•Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q1) 0.1%, 0.7% previous
•Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q1) 0.5%, 1.4% previous
•Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q1) 0.2%, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45 EU HCOB Italy Composite PMI (May) 52.1 previous
•07:45 EU HCOB Italy Services PMI (May) 52.1 forecast, 52.9 previous
•07:50 EU HCOB France Composite PMI (May) 48.0 forecast, 47.8 previous
•07:50 EU HCOB France Services PMI (May) 47.4 forecast, 47.3 previous
• 07:55 EU HCOB Germany Composite PMI (May) 48.6 forecast, 50.1 previous
• 07:55 EU HCOB Germany Services PMI (May) 47.2 forecast, 49.0 previous
•08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (May) 49.5 forecast, 50.4 previous
•08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (May): 48.9 forecast, 50.1 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (May) 49.4 forecast, 48.5 previous
•08:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (May) 50.2 forecast, 49.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded in tight range against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investor attention turned to the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its benchmark rate on Thursday to 2.00%, a level not seen since early 2022.The anticipated move comes amid waning inflation across the eurozone and persistent signs of economic weakness, prompting the central bank to adopt a more accommodative stance. While the rate cut is largely priced in, markets will be focused on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision commentary for clues on the future trajectory of monetary policy, including whether further easing is on the horizon. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound steadied on Wednesday as higher U.S. duties on steel and aluminium took effect, marking the latest chapter in the trade war that has rattled the markets for much of the year. Investor focus has been on the pace of trade negotiations and the lack of significant progress. Wednesday is the deadline for U.S. trading partners to submit their proposals for deals that might help them avoid Trump's hefty Liberation Day tariffs from taking effect in five weeks. The on-again-off-again tariffs from Trump have led to investors fleeing U.S. assets looking for safe havens, including gold and other currencies, this year as they expect trade uncertainties to take a toll on the global economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened on Wednesday after the release of disappointing Q1 GDP figures, confirming that the Australian economy remains on a sluggish growth trajectory. According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 0.2% in the March quarter, a significant slowdown from the 0.6% increase recorded in Q4. The figure also missed market expectations of a 0.4% rise. The weak performance highlights ongoing economic headwinds, as consumer spending remained subdued and government expenditure a key driver of growth last year came to a halt. The data underscores the increasing need for additional policy stimulus to support the economy and revive momentum. The RBA has cut rates twice since February to 3.85% and was open to a larger move in May amid global risks. Swaps now price in an 80% chance of a July cut, with nearly 100 bps of easing to 2.85% by early 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6429(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6373(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against yen on Wednesday as market participants positioned themselves ahead of key U.S. employment data, which is expected to offer fresh insights into the strength of the U.S. labor market. Traders are closely watching the ADP employment report due later today, as it will provide an early indication of labor market strength ahead of the more closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls data scheduled for release on Friday. Investor focus also remained on a potential call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week, amid ongoing tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Investors are hoping the discussion could ease concerns over tariffs and strained diplomatic ties, which have weighed on global market sentiment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
Asian equities climbed on Wednesday, driven primarily by strong performance in technology stocks.
At GMT 07:09 Japan’s Nikkie was up 0.78% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 2.66%,Hang Seng was up by 0.50%.
Commodities Recap
Gold held its ground Wednesday, as upbeat U.S. employment figures countered trade-related and economic concerns.
Spot gold was stable at $3,351.49 an ounce as of 0609 GMT. U.S. gold futures also held steady at $3,375.
Oil traded lower on Wednesday as output concerns and trade tensions pressured prices, but Canadian supply fears helped stabilize the market.
Brent crude futures dipped 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $65.46 a barrel by 0644 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 19 cents, or 0.3%, at $63.22 a barrel.