Posted at 04 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Redbook (YoY) 4.9%,6.1% previous
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Apr) -7.5%,-7.5% forecast,-7.5% previous
• US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Apr) 0.2%, 0.2% previous
• US Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr) -3.1% forecast,3.4% previous
• US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Apr) -3.7%, 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
• US JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 7.391M,7.110M forecast, 7.192M previous
• US Total Vehicle Sales (May) 15.65M , 16.00M forecast, 17.27M previous
• US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jun) 49.2, 49.1 forecast, 47.9 previous
• New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•01:30 Australia GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•01:30 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•01:30 Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q1) 0.7% previous
•01:30 Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q1) 1.4% previous
•01:30 Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q1) 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after Eurozone inflation fell below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since early 2021. Headline inflation dropped to 1.9% in May from 2.2% in April, undercutting the 2.0% forecast, as energy prices declined and services inflation eased sharply.Core inflation which strips out food and energy also slowed to 2.3% from 2.7%, according to Eurostat. The data adds to expectations that the ECB may continue its dovish stance, having already cut interest rates seven times since June 2024 to combat weak inflation and sluggish growth.Money markets are now nearly certain that the ECB will deliver another 25-basis-point cut on Thursday, which would bring the region’s benchmark rate down to 2%.. The euro slid 0.2% after briefly touching a six-week high of $1.1454.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Tuesday as market reacted to remarks from Bank of England (BoE) officials. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday reaffirmed a gradual and careful approach to interest rate cuts, citing growing uncertainty in the global trade landscape as a key risk to the economic outlook. His comments come amid rising volatility linked to global trade tensions, particularly those stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies. Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, considered a centrist on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), told lawmakers she supported a rate cut even before recent trade disruptions intensified. She was among the majority of five MPC members, including Bailey, who voted in favor of a quarter-point cut last month. The BoE lowered its benchmark rate to 4.25% in a three-way split decision, pointing to "heightened unpredictability" in global markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as Canadian dollar was buoyed by rising oil prices and investor anticipation of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Oil prices climbed approximately 1.7% to $63.58 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iran, as well as supply disruptions from wildfires in Alberta, which have curtailed about 7% of Canada's oil output. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75%, given persistent core inflation and moderate economic growth. Markets have priced in a 75% probability of no change, though economists anticipate at least two more rate cuts later this year if domestic demand continues to weaken. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3725 per U.S. dollar after trading in a range of 1.3702 to 1.3742. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3753(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3828 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3685(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3661(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose slightly against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as investor caution increased amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to speak this week after Trump accused China of breaching their tariff rollback deal.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ued said the BOJ may raise interest rates once economic and price growth stabilizes. He also confirmed that bond purchase tapering will continue beyond March, signaling a gradual exit from ultra-loose policy. Markets remain focused on the upcoming U.S.-China talks as trade uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark stock index ended little changed on Tuesday, as investors ceded ground under the dual pressure of softening economic indicators and persistent global trade anxieties.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.67 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.34 percent.
U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, boosted by gains in Nvidia and other chipmakers, as investors awaited potential trade talks for clearer U.S. tariff plans.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.51% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.58% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.81% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold dropped nearly 1% on Tuesday after reaching a near four-week high, weighed down by a stronger dollar as investors awaited a possible Trump-Xi call.
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,352.30 an ounce as of 2:26 p.m. ET (1826 GMT), after hitting its highest since May 8, earlier in the session.
Oil prices rose about 2% on Tuesday to a two-week high, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia-Ukraine and the U.S.-Iran, which are expected to extend sanctions on OPEC+ members Russia and Iran.
Brent crude futures rose $1, or 1.5%, to settle at $65.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 89 cents, or 1.4%, to close at $63.41.