Posted at 03 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Government Budget Balance (Apr) -69.3B, -47.0B previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change (May) -57.8K,-68.5K forecast,-67.4K previous
•Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.9%, 6.1% forecast,6.1% previous
•Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction 1.878%,1.886% previous
•Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction 1.890%, 1.937% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (May) 0.0%, 1.0% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (May) 2.3% ,2.4% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU CPI (MoM)May): 0.0%, 0.6% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (May) 1.9%, 2.0% forecast,2.2% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (May) 128.73, 128.77 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (May) 2.4%,2.4% forecast,2.7% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (May): 0.1%, 0.9% previous
•EU Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.2%,6.2%forecast,6.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 6.1% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Apr) -7.5% forecast,-7.5% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr) -3.1% forecast,3.4% previous
•14:00 US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
•14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 7.110M forecast, 7.192M previous
•14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (May) 16.00M forecast, 17.27M previous
•14:10 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jun) 49.1 forecast, 47.9 previous
•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•16:45 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•17:00 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•19:30 US Fed Logan Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors turned their focus to the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its main borrowing rate to 2% on Thursday half the level it reached at its peak last year and significantly below the current U.S. Federal Reserve rate.This anticipated move would bring rates back to what the ECB views as a 'neutral' level, where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. The rate cut reflects easing inflationary pressures across the eurozone and aims to support growth, which has remained sluggish in recent quarters. Market participants will pay close attention not only to the rate announcement but also to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-meeting comments for insights into the central bank’s outlook and the potential for further policy adjustments. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Tuesday as market reacted to remarks from Bank of England (BoE) officials. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday reaffirmed a gradual and careful approach to interest rate cuts, citing growing uncertainty in the global trade landscape as a key risk to the economic outlook. His comments come amid rising volatility linked to global trade tensions, particularly those stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies. Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, considered a centrist on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), told lawmakers she supported a rate cut even before recent trade disruptions intensified. She was among the majority of five MPC members, including Bailey, who voted in favor of a quarter-point cut last month. The BoE lowered its benchmark rate to 4.25% in a three-way split decision, pointing to "heightened unpredictability" in global markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined on Tuesday, weighed down by cautious market sentiment following the release of the RBA Minutes and weaker-than-expected economic data from China. The Reserve Bank of Australia warned that rising U.S. tariffs could threaten global growth and push down traded goods prices in the near term, although the full impact remains unclear due to policy uncertainty.RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, speaking in Brisbane, noted that the central bank is closely monitoring global trade developments, highlighting that rising uncertainty could dampen business investment, output, and job growth.Further pressuring the Aussie dollar, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, marking the first contraction in eight months and coming in below market expectations. The weak data raised concerns about slowing demand in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. The weak reading raised concerns about slowing demand in Australia’s largest trading partner, further weighing on the Aussie dollar.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6429(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6373(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as investor caution grew amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to speak this week, following Trump’s accusation that China breached their tariff rollback agreement. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated the central bank would consider raising interest rates once it sees a solid recovery in economic and price growth. He also indicated that bond purchase tapering will continue beyond March, reinforcing the BOJ’s gradual shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. Markets remained largely focused on the upcoming U.S.-China talks, as ongoing trade uncertainties continue to dominate investor sentiment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares was mixed on Tuesday as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy dampened sentiment ahead of key events this week.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold retreated on Tuesday as investors stayed cautious amid shifting U.S. trade policies.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,356.75 an ounce as of 1125 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 8 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures eased 0.5% to $3,381.30.
Oil prices steadied on Tuesday, boosted by escalating geopolitical tensions as the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified and Iran prepared to reject a U.S. nuclear deal proposal crucial for easing sanctions.
Brent crude futures gained 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.68 a barrel by 1000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 16 cents, or 0.3%, to $62.68